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Vaccines – what does 95% efficacy actually mean?

Covid-19 is one of many types of respiratory viruses.

The mRNA coronavirus vaccines are 95% effective. What does that mean?

Does this mean that you have a 5% of chance of being infected and getting very sick (or dying) and a 95% chance of being okay?

Not at all! That “95%” figure really means that one is 95% less likely to be infected than compared to someone who hasn’t been vaccinated at at.

How about for a vaccine that is “only” 92% effective? As the math below shows, that means that one only has a 0.04 percent chance of getting COVID!

That’s just a 4 in 10,000 chance – and even then, the majority of those people won’t get it bad. They’ll just have some minor symptoms for a few days.

Let’s see the math!

Image from St. Lawrence University, Mathematics-Economics Combined Major

This section excerpted from Coronavirus FAQs, Sheila Mulrooney Eldred, NPR Goats and Soda, 3/12/2021

…The tendency to oversimplify has led many people to the same — mistaken — conclusion that an efficacy rate of 92 percent would mean that of 100 vaccinated people, 8 of them would get sick during a pandemic.

But that’s not the case. Fortunately, a vaccine with a 92 percent efficacy rate actually means your chances of getting the disease is much, much less than 8 percent.

It means that if you were exposed to the disease, your chances of getting infected would be 92 percent less if you were vaccinated than if you weren’t.

…Say you originally had a 10% chance of getting sick without being vaccinated. If you got that vaccine with an efficacy rate of 92%, your chance of getting sick would drop from 10% to less than 1% — 0.8%, to be exact.

In reality, the trials found that the probability of getting sick in the placebo groups was much less than 10%. In the Pfizer trial, for example, it was 0.79% — or less than one per 100 people.

Participants who got the real vaccine had just a .04 percent chance of getting COVID … that’s 4 in 10,000 people.

Coronavirus FAQs: What Is ‘Vaccine Efficacy’?

What does 95% efficacy actually mean? CDC

Vaccine efficacy and vaccine effectiveness measure the proportionate reduction in cases among vaccinated persons.

Vaccine efficacy is used when a study is carried out under ideal conditions, for example, during a clinical trial.

Vaccine effectiveness is used when a study is carried out under typical field (that is, less than perfectly controlled) conditions.

Vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) is measured by calculating the risk of disease among vaccinated and unvaccinated persons and determining the percentage reduction in risk of disease among vaccinated persons relative to unvaccinated persons.

The greater the percentage reduction of illness in the vaccinated group, the greater the vaccine efficacy/effectiveness. The basic formula is written as:

the numerator (risk among unvaccinated − risk among vaccinated) is sometimes called the risk difference or excess risk.

Vaccine efficacy/effectiveness is interpreted as the proportionate reduction in disease among the vaccinated group.

So a VE of 90% indicates a 90% reduction in disease occurrence among the vaccinated group, or a 90% reduction from the number of cases you would expect if they have not been vaccinated.

from CDC Principles of Epidemiology, Measures of Risk

Related articles

This section has been excerpted from COVID-19 vaccines: What does 95% efficacy actually mean?, Anna Nowogrodzki, Live Science, 2/11/2021

“I think it’s important for people to understand that this is an extremely effective vaccine,” said Brianne Barker, a virologist at Drew University in New Jersey, referring to the Pfizer vaccine. “This is much more effective than you might think.”

One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that’s not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%.

What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren’t vaccinated.

In other words, vaccinated people in the Pfizer clinical trial were 20 times less likely than the control group to get COVID-19.

That makes the vaccine “one of the most effective vaccines that we have,” Barker told Live Science. For comparison, the two-dose measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine is 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The seasonal flu vaccine is between 40% and 60% effective (it varies from year to year, depending on that year’s vaccine and flu strains), but it still prevented an estimated 7.5 million cases of the flu in the U.S. during the 2019-2020 flu season, according to the CDC.

So, if efficacy means some percent fewer cases of COVID-19, what counts as a “case of COVID”? Both Pfizer and Moderna defined a case as having at least one symptom (however mild) and a positive COVID-19 test.

Johnson & Johnson defined a “case” as having a positive COVID-19 test plus at least one moderate symptom (such as shortness of breath, abnormal blood oxygen levels or abnormal respiratory rate) or at least two milder symptoms (such as fever, cough, fatigue, headache, or nausea).

Someone with a moderate case of COVID-19 by this definition could either be mildly affected or be incapacitated and feel pretty sick for a few weeks.

… And none of the three vaccine trials looked at all for asymptomatic COVID-19. “All these efficacy numbers are protection from having symptoms, not protection from being infected,” Barker said.

… But all three trials also used a second, potentially more important, definition of “cases.” What we care most about is protecting people from the worst outcomes of COVID-19: hospitalization and death.

So Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson also measured how their vaccines performed against severe disease (which meant severely affected heart or respiratory rate, the need for supplemental oxygen, ICU admission, respiratory failure or death).

All three vaccines were 100% effective at preventing severe disease six weeks after the first dose (for Moderna) or seven weeks after the first dose (for Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson, the latter of which requires only one dose). Zero vaccinated people in any of the trials were hospitalized or died of COVID-19 after the vaccines had fully taken effect.

Beware misleading terminology! The base rate fallacy

Dr. Katelyn Jetelina writes about how newspaper articles and social media discussions about science can be misleading. This is a great example: in countries where many people are already vaccinated against covid-19, some people nonetheless do become infected with various variants of covid-19.

Does this mean that the vaccines are useless? Not at all, in fact quite the opposite. She explains the simple logic of the math:

In Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias she writes:

The delta variant of covid-19 has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being more transmissible and preliminary evidence suggesting its ability to escape natural immunity, unvaccinated people and populations are in trouble.

The statistic that’s concerning most (and that’s in the news) is a detail the Director General of the Health Ministry of Israel (Professor Chevy Levy) said during a radio interview. When asked how many of the new COVID19 cases had been vaccinated, Levy said that, “we are looking at a rate of 40 to 50%”.

This must mean the Delta variant is escaping our vaccines, right? When I started digging into the numbers, though, this might not be as alarming as it seems.

This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields).

Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.

The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.

Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:
-100 adult community
-4 COVID19 cases
-50% of cases were among the vaccinated

With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.

Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.

We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…

1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?

2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?

3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.

Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we should

About the author of this section: Katelyn Jetelina has a Masters in Public Health and PhD in Epidemiology and Biostatistics. She is an Assistant Professor at a School of Public Health where her research lab resides.

High effectiveness of covid-19 vaccines, breakthrough cases and the base rate fallacy

Here’s the good news, take-home message:

The vast majority of fully vaccinated persons who have subsequently been infected are either asymptotic or have very mild symptoms. Only one or two recently infected vaccinated persons have been hospitalized. That’s great news – and exactly what was predicted. This in fact is how all vaccines work. None of them work literally 100%. There will always be a few people who can get infected and then sick, just a tiny percent. And even then, when such people do get sick, most of the time it is very mild and they just stay home for a day or two. Very few become very sick.

More to the point, merely being infected is basically meaninglessness: In fact, a vaccine only works when a person *is* infected. A vaccine (for any virus) doesn’t prevent infection, it protects the person from succumbing to the infection. It’s not a magical protective bubble surrounding a person.

Thinking rationally: examining the base rate fallacy

Why do we rely on specific information over statistics? Base Rate Fallacy explained.

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El Nino and La Nina

El Niño is the name given to the periodic warming of the ocean that occurs in the central and eastern Pacific.

At irregular intervals of three to seven years, these warm countercurrents become unusually strong and replace normally cold offshore waters with warm equatorial waters.

A major El Niño episode can cause extreme weather in many parts of the world.

What is La Niña? When surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are colder than average, a La Niña event is triggered that has a distinctive set of weather patterns.

and

and

How does it form?

How do the ocean and atmosphere come together to create thus? This problem took nearly fifty years to solve, even after all of the basic ingredients were uncovered.

The Rise of El Niño and La Niña

 

How this affects the USA – SciJinks – what is La Niña?

How this affects Africa – Weather conditions over the Pacific, including an unusually strong La Niña, interrupted seasonal rains for two consecutive seasons. Between July 2011 and mid-2012, a severe drought affected the entire East African region. Said to be “the worst in 60 years”, it caused a severe food crisis across Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya that threatened the livelihood of 9.5 million people. Many refugees from southern Somalia fled to neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia. Other countries in East Africa, including Sudan, South Sudan and parts of Uganda, were also affected by a food crisis. Many people died.

 

Live video of El Nino

El Niño, Chris Farley, on Saturday Night Live

 

The full skit is here 🙂 NBC Saturday Night Live classic clip

 

Links

19.3 Regional wind systems breezes El Nino PowerPoint

Chap 19 Air Pressure Coriolis Global winds El Nino

19.3 regional wind systems PDF worksheets

19.3 Regional Wind Systems Teacher chapter

 

Learning Standards

NGSS
HS-ESS2-2. Analyze geoscience data to make the claim that one change to Earth’s surface can create feedbacks that cause changes to other Earth systems.

Disciplinary Core Ideas – ESS2.A: Earth Materials and Systems
 Earth’s systems, being dynamic and interacting, cause feedback effects that can increase or decrease the original changes.

Crosscutting concepts: stability and change – Feedback (negative or positive) can stabilize or destabilize a system.

HS-ESS2-4. Use a model to describe how variations in the flow of energy into and out of Earth’s systems result in changes in climate

DCI – ESS2.D: Weather and Climate – ESS2.A: Earth Materials and System

 The foundation for Earth’s global climate systems is the electromagnetic radiation from the sun, as well as its reflection, absorption, storage, and redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and land systems, and this energy’s re-radiation into space.

 

 

 

Seaspiracy – documentary or propaganda?

Seaspiracy is a 2021 documentary about the impact of fishing on marine wildlife directed by Ali Tabrizi. The film investigates the effects of plastic marine debris and overfishing around the world and argues that commercial fisheries are the main driver of marine ecosystem destruction. Is this an even-handed piece of journalism, based on science, or is this propaganda?  Here we go through criticism of this movie by scientists working in the field, who see this film as misleading, and intellectually dishonest.

They also discuss implicit (albeit, unintended) racism, with upper middle class white people making movies, demanding that huge numbers of people in the Pacific Islands and off the coasts of Asia and Africa must all lose their jobs, in order to make everyone vegan.

What teachers should say to our students

Be aware that all documentaries come with some view and bias.

Students should take care to see if the film makers make specific claims, citing peer-reviewed sources, or if they just more boardly make statements of fact that are hard to (or impossible) to source.

If the filmmakers do cite a peer-reviewed article, is that article representative of the field, or is it an outlier that the great majority of scientists disagree with.

Are the filmmakers citing papers that were later retracted?

We should discuss how the peer review process is all part of science. This includes papers being revised, or occasionally withdrawn. Revision or withdrawing a paper, by the way, isn’t a sign of a problem: that is exactly what one would expect to find in an open, transparent system.  Problems only arise if problems are discovered but the author refuses to revise, or if a paper is retracted, but a documentarian nonetheless cites the retracted paper without noting that it is no longer considered correct.

 

Global Aquaculture Alliance rebuttal to Seaspiracy

Seaspiracy film assails fishing and aquaculture sectors that seem ready for a good fight, Lauren Kramer, Global Aquaculture Alliance, 3/26/2021

“We know the producer is trying to convince an audience not to eat seafood. He’s gone into filmmaking with a desired outcome for his audience, and that’s not documentary making, it’s propaganda,” Gavin Gibbons, VP, communications at NFI, told the Advocate. “We know from Tabrizi’s previous movies, Cowspiracy and What The Health, that the facts are very relative when it comes to this filmmaker.”

Soon after its release, NFI began debunking some of the key arguments the film makes. “The idea that the oceans will be empty by 2048 is based on a completely debunked 2006 statistic, refuted by the author of the original study. The 2048 statistic was put to rest by a follow-up report in the journal Science released in 2009 under the title New hope for fisheries,” it noted.

New hope for fisheries. Scientists document prospects for recovery, call for more global action, AAAS, 7/30/2009

Seaspiracy director Tabrizi interviews Richard Oppenlander, owner of a vegan company and animal rescue sanctuary, who endorses the call to ban fishing in 30 percent of the oceans by 2030 based on his calculation that “less than 1 percent of our oceans are being regulated,” a point that NFI retorted is “not only inaccurate, it’s nonsensical.”

In his coverage of illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) fishing in Africa, Tabrizi claims that one in every three wild caught fish imported into the United States were caught illegally and therefor sold illegally, a statistic that prominent U.S. fisheries researcher Ray Hilborn wrote was not credible, and that the retraction of the approach has been a long, drawn-out process.

Pramod et al. methods to estimate IUU are not credible
Ray Hilborn et al
Marine Policy, Volume 108, October 2019, 103632
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X19303318

and
Retraction drama continues, Max Mossler, Sustainable Fisheries, University of Washington, 7/14/2019

Retraction drama continues

Response by Christina Hicks

Environmental social scientist at Lancaster Environment Centre, adjunct at JCU

Ms. Hicks writes writes

Unnerving to discover your cameo in a film slamming an industry you love & have committed your career to. I’ve a lot to say about #seaspiracy- but won’t. Yes there are issues but also progress & fish remain critical to food & nutrition security in many vulnerable geographies.

Absolutely they raise important issues that need addressing, but there was no real conversation (intersectional or otherwise) and their conclusion-to stop eating fish a) doesn’t address the systematic injustices & b) threatens livelihoods and food security.

Here is a resource put together by academics at UW. I work on fisheries contributions to food and nutrition security. There are important messages in the film. And we do need to challenge corporate control. I just don’t think all fishers are the villains

Rebuttal by Josette Emlen Genio

Sustainable Markets Consultant at Sustainable Fisheries Partnership (SFP)
She writes

No scientist would support the assertion that all fish stocks will be collapsed by 2048. There are threats, however.

https://sustainablefisheries-uw.org/fisheries-2048/

“The latest FAO State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture report (25) indicates that the fraction of overfished stocks has increased since 2000 (from 27% to 33%), while this study suggests that abundance of stocks is increasing.”

Effective fisheries management instrumental in improving fish stock status” Ray Hilburn et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2020 Jan 28;117(4):2218-2224 doi: 10.1073/pnas.1909726116. Epub 2020 Jan 13.

 

Thoughts by Francisco Blaha

An institutional fisheries advisor. IUU, PSM & Labor issues for FFA/FAO/NZMFAT & others.

Francisco Blaha writes

Here it is: for all of those that tell me to watch “Seaspiracy” I started and got feed up very soon… Is a kick in the guts for most of the people I work with here in the WCPO that are doing the right thing and managing their fisheries. Be outside and point fingers stuff. Of course, there are many problems! No one doubts that. But also things progressively working in many regions like the WCPO, I choose to focus my work on those. “Gloom sells but does not help”.

Furthermore. to be totally honest: I’m over the set up where, the “bad guys” are predominantly Asian, the “victims” predominantly black/brown, and the “good guys” talking about it and saving the ocean are predominantly white. While I’m sure is well intended, still drags cliche stereotypes and racist overtones.

As for the science background research of the film… as an example… a couple of minutes on google would have shown him that even the lead author of the paper retracted the claim.

Yes, I understand you may choose to not eat fish for whatever reasons you choose to believe. Is your privilege to have a choice. Yet all food production systems have impacts, and it is easy to dismiss one when your livelihood does not depend on them, like for most Pacific Islands

These countries are managing their fisheries sustainably because they are capable and understand better than anyone else, the implications of a failure. They don’t need the uncalled opinion of privileged people to tell them that doesn’t matter what they can scientifically prove.

FFA 2019 Tuna Economics Indicators Brochure

Click to access FFA%202019%20Tuna%20Economic%20Indicators%20Brochure%202019.pdf

The western and central Pacific tuna fishery: 2019 overview and status of stocks, Fisheries, Aquaculture and Marine Ecosystems
https://fame1.spc.int/en/component/content/article/251

Rebuttal by Josette Emlen Genio

She writes

I renewed my Netflix subscription just for this, and I was disappointed. Besides the many inaccuracies, I have a gazillion thoughts and sentiments about this documentary, but I’ll be more interested to hear what my fellow colleagues in marine conservation NGOs, many of which have been discredited in the film, have to say😞 But here’s my 2 cents (beware of spoilers!):

While I agree on several of the cases they presented, you cannot ask people to just “stop eating fish and go vegan” (yes that’s exactly the docu’s message) WITHOUT considering the socio-economic impacts of this in MANY fisheries-dependent, food-deficit communities. Overfishing and Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing are not only driven by greed, but also by POVERTY.

There’s a distinct line between industrial and artisanal fishing. It’s easy to say “boycott seafood” when options are afforded to you or you do not understand the complexities of the struggles and plight of fishermen. In many coastal communities in Asia and Latin America, the oceans are their LIFEBLOOD that provides them MAIN source if not the ONLY source of livelihood and food security. More than 90% of world’s fishers are NOT from industrial fishing fleets- they are smallholder, subsistence fishers – and thus stand to benefit from eating more sustainable and responsibly-caught seafood.

When it comes to sustainability, the type, size, source, and harvest method of fish always matter. Eating matang-baka or tanigue vs “industrial” salmon or tuna will GREATLY VARY in terms of impacts. And marine conservation NGOs are working hard, so consumers have informed choices. Drastic, blanket recommendations will have drastic, unimaginable consequences. Remember that.

 

Accusations of racism

I dare them to tell small-scale fishers, esp the ones in the developing countries that they must stop eat and do something that keeps them alive Face with look of triumph This kind of approach – is just another example of white savior complex. I am still enraged!

The documentary outright says that the large scale fishering fleets are taking the food from the small-scale fishers and causing hunger. The dumb “just don’t eat fish” message is obviously made for the viewers that are 90% first world rich people NOT dependant on fish at all.

Magnus Johnson writes

https://marine-biology.net/2021/03/29/seaspiracy/

Le Chatelier’s principle

In the early parts of a chemistry class we think of a chemical reaction as a one-time event: either compounds react, or they don’t react. Nothing.

But quite often the reality is dynamic: Chemical A and B combine to make AB…. but AB breaks apart back into A and B. Then those individual A and B can eventually recombine again into AB. 

So on a microscopic level, individual reactions never cease.

Yet at the macroscopic level, the reaction seems to have come to a stop.

What does happen, is that at any given pressure and temperature, we’ll end up with an equilibrium: there will be a constant, certain amount of separate pieces, and a constant, certain amount of combined pieces.

We can make a ratio of [separate pieces] compared to [combined pieces.]

This ratio is called an equilibrium constant.

Here is a visual of a situation, not about chemical reactions, but about locations. We create a ratio of how much is one one side compared to how much is on another side. 

from blendspace.com/lessons/NiOSxDaHOeAhQA/copy-of-equilibrium-ap-chemistry

 

Online lessons

CK-12 Chemistry LeChatelier’s Principle

CK-12 LeChatelier’s Principle and the Equilibrium Constant

Dynamic Equilibrium and Le Chatelier’s Principle

Opentextbc.ca Shifting Equilibria: Le Chatelier’s Principle

Libretexts Chemistry – Le Chatelier’s Principle

Here is a fantastic infographic by Compound Interest

 

Apps & interactives

PhET apps – Reactions & Rates, and Reversible Reactions

interactives CK-12 Scroll down to “Flat vs Fizyy Soda”

elearning at Cal Poly Pomona – Kinetics, Equilibrium, and then Le Chatelier.

PLIX Le Châtelier’s Principle and the Equilibrium Constant

The Law of Mass Action, Wolfram

Le Chatelier’s Principle in Chemical Equilibrium, Wolfram

 

Constructing an equilibrium expression

See the lesson here Dynamicscience.com equilibrium4

 

Learning Standards

NGSS

HS-PS1-6. Refine the design of a chemical system by specifying a change in conditions that would produce increased amounts of products at equilibrium. Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on the application of Le Chatelier’s Principle and on refining designs of chemical reaction systems, including descriptions of the connection between changes made at the macroscopic level and what happens at the molecular level.

Massachusetts

HS-PS1-6. Design ways to control the extent of a reaction at equilibrium (relative amount of products to reactants) by altering various conditions using Le Chatelier’s principle. Make arguments based on kinetic molecular theory to account for how altering conditions would affect the forward and reverse rates of the reaction until a new equilibrium is established.*

Massachusetts State Assessment Boundaries:
• Calculations of equilibrium constants or concentrations are not expected in state assessment.
• State assessment will be limited to simple reactions in which there are only two reactants and to specifying the change in only one variable at a time.

 

Zero Day Vulnerability

A zero-day is a computer-software or firmware vulnerability previously unknown to those who of us who are interested in its mitigation.

Until the vulnerability is mitigated, hackers can exploit it to adversely affect programs, data, additional computers or a network.

An exploit taking advantage of a zero-day is called a zero-day exploit or zero-day attack.

Zero-day attacks are a severe threat. There’s no cure; we have no lead time on these issues. No patches available yet.

Once vendors learn of the vulnerability it is their responsibility to create patches or advise workarounds to mitigate it. In practice vendors cannot always be trusted upon to do this in a timely fashion.

What happens if some software on our machine started copying data, trying to send it? How would we deal with this?

Limit third party access

Minimize exploitable entry points. Third-party remote access is a key vulnerability

A recent report found that 44% of organizations experienced a breach in the last 12 months, with 74% saying it was the result of giving too much privileged access to third parties.

51% of organizations have experienced a data breach caused by a third-party, Security Magazine

Backup data before anything happens

Always assume that malware and zero day exploits can someday affect our servers. As such, before this happens we must have a practice of regularly making backups of all of our data.

The data may be backed up on

RAID Arrays

External hard drives, stored locally

External hard drives, stored in a separate location

USB thumb drives, CD-ROMS, anything else one prefers, etc.

Windows Defender Exploit Guard

Anti-malware software that provides intrusion protection for users with the Windows 10 operating system (OS).

Released as part of Windows 10 Fall Creators Update.  Part of Windows Defender Security Center

It uses a type of AI from Microsoft Intelligent Security Graph (ISG) to identify active exploits; it also identifies procedures likely to stop these types of attacks at various stages of the kill chain.

This seems difficult. How can identify something that we have never seen before? After all:

  –>  the underlying vulnerability being exploited varies

  –> the delivery mechanism differs

  –> the payload changes

Fortunately

  –> there is a core set of behaviors and vectors that many different attacks adhere to.

By correlating streams of events to various malicious behaviors, Windows Defender Exploit Guard has a high chance of noticing such threats.

Intrusion detection system (IDS)

These can detect malicious activity and alert an administrator; they take no other action.

Intrusion prevention system (IPS)

Can be hardware or software

These can detect malicious activity, alert an administrator, and also automatically take certain actions

Isolate

Isolate all affected computers/servers from the internet (if not done already.)

Utilize current anti-malware

Try our already owned anti-malware programs.

White Hat Social Networking

Social network immediately with other computer security professionals who use similar servers and computers: Have they seen this problem, have they found any effective tools yet?

Wiping hard drives/servers

If necessary, wipe a hard drive. e.g. software like Disk Wiper

This not only deletes all files on a given partition or entire hard drive, it then writes new (blank) data over it.

Reformat the server or PC hard drive

Install new copy of Windows, or Windows Server, or whatever software we like.

Restore data

Copy our previously backed-up data back onto the server

Source patches from software vendors

Identify the systems that require updates, test the changes introduced by the patch.

Segmenting the network

Which submarine is more likely to sink if it is hit by a torpedo?

Intelligence of crows: Research project

How intelligent are corvids/crows? (Rooks, jackdaws, jays, magpies, treepies, etc.)

This image from thecut.com/2016/07/crows-continue-to-be-terrifyingly-intelligent.html

Background

In order to investigate this one must first clearly understand:

(A) What are birds? See – Birds

(B) What are corvids? See – Corvidae

(C) How do we know if they are intelligent, sapient, sentient? You’ll need to look up the scientific definitions of these words.

The main idea: How smart are corvids?

How can we design tests or games to interest them, so we can test their intelligence?

Do they have self-awareness/sentience?

Do they have emotions?

How good are they at recognizing individual human faces?

How good is their memory?

 

Create your report

Create a written report using MS Word/Google Docs. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like. If you like, you can use the built-in voice-to-text; this will transcribe your words.

Create a video, using your favorite software & apps. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like. You’ll narrate it. Share the project as a video file with us.

Create a PowerPoint/Google Slides presentation. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like.

Create an Infographic. There are many websites and apps out there to do this. Choose your favorite apps. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like.

 

Cite your sources, avoid plagiarism

See Good writing and avoiding plagiarism

 

 

Who invented the…Engine, Auto, Radio, TV, Computer, Smartphone, GPS?

The Difference Engine of Charles Babbage, progenitor to the computer.

Who invented the …

power loom? telephone?

internal combustion engine?  automobile?

radio?  television? computer?

smartphone? GPS?

technology for organ transplantation?

modern light bulb?

Myth – Each of these was invented by someone.

Reality – None of these were developed by just one person.  Instead, each technology developed over time – with contributions from many people.

Consider a recent meme shared on social media about Dr. Gladys West. It is well-intentioned, but ends up concealing as much as it reveals.

While doing important work, she didn’t invent GPS – no one person did.

Instead, we follow the contributions of many people. Here, from left to right are Friedwardt Winterberg, Bill Guier, Frank McClure, and George Weiffenbach.

And here are Roger Easton, Ivan Getting, Bradford Parkinson, and Gladys West.

Let’s look at the story more deeply, which covers decades:

One of the fathers of GPS was Friedwardt Winterberg. Back in 1955 he proposed a test of Einstein’s theory of general relativity.

Winterberg realized that it should be possible to detect the predicted slowing of time in a strong gravitational field; this could be done by using atomic clocks placed in Earth orbit inside artificial satellites.

From “The Elegant Universe”, PBS series NOVA. 2003.

Contrary to the predictions of classical physics, relativity predicts that the clocks on the GPS satellites would be seen by the Earth’s observers to run 38 microseconds faster per day than the clocks on the Earth.

Image found on Gyfcat. Looking for the source.

His experiment was eventually experimentally verified by Hafele and Keating in 1971 by flying atomic clocks on commercial jets.

Without taking such relativistic corrections into account, any position calculated from satellite technology – such as GPS – would quickly drift into error. The error in estimated position would be as much as 10 kilometers per day (6 miles/day.)

The next people who helped create what would become GPS were William Guier and George Weiffenbach. They worked at Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory (APL.)

When the Soviet Union launched the first artificial satellite (Sputnik 1) in 1957, they decided to monitor its radio transmissions.

Guier and Weiffenbach realized that, because of the Doppler effect, they could pinpoint where the satellite was along its orbit.

In 1958, Frank McClure, the deputy director of the APL, asked Guier and Weiffenbach to investigate the inverse problem – pinpointing the user’s location, given the satellite’s location.

At the time, the US Navy was developing the submarine-launched Polaris missile, which required them to know the submarine’s location.

This led Guier and Weiffenbach, along with other scientists at APL to develop the TRANSIT system. Transit was used by the U.S. Navy to provide location information to its Polaris ballistic missile submarines.

It was also used as a navigation system by Navy surface ships, as well as for surveying. This system went online in 1960.

The next father of GPS would be Roger L. Easton of the Naval Research Laboratory. During the 1960s and early 1970s he developed a navigational system with passive ranging, circular orbits, and space-borne high precision clocks placed in satellites.

Ivan A. Getting of The Aerospace Corporation

In the 1950s, as head of research and engineering at Raytheon Corp., Waltham, Mass., Getting led a project to develop a mobile ballistic missile guidance system called Mosaic, which was to work like the Loran system.

But Getting envisioned another concept. Though the railroad mobile version of the intercontinental ballistic missile was cancelled, he realized that if a similar system were used, one that based the transmitters on satellites, and if enough satellites were lofted so that four were always in sight, it would be possible to pinpoint locations in three dimensions anywhere on earth. This theory led to Navstar.

For GPS, Also Thank Ivan Getting; He Got “the Damn Thing Funded, Tekla Perry, IEEE Spectrum, 4/19/2018

Bradford Parkinson of the Applied Physics Laboratory was the lead architect, advocate and developer of GPS.  He was given full, direct control of the development of the demonstration system, which included satellites, a global ground control system, nine types of user receivers, and an extensive land, sea and air test program

Gladys West analyzed data from satellites, putting together altimeter models of the Earth’s shape. She became project manager for the Seasat radar altimetry project, the first satellite that could remotely sense oceans.

From the mid-1970s through the 1980s, West worked on precise calculations to model the shape of the Earth – a geoid – an ellipsoid with irregularities.

NOAA National Geodetic Survey, from a PPT by Hawaii Geographic Information Coordinating Council

Generating an extremely accurate model required her to employ complex algorithms to account for variations in gravitational, tidal, and other forces that distort Earth’s shape. This was essential for the Global Positioning System (GPS).

Whew…. and all that is just the short version of who invented the GPS. The longer version would literally take a book, a dozen hours of video, and include dozens more people.

Student project

Students will work individually or in groups, researching, and then creating a presentation on the evolution of any of these technologies.

You may propose another technology to investigate; clear it with your teacher first.

power loom? telephone?

internal combustion engine?  automobile?

radio?  television? computer?

smartphone? GPS?

technology for organ transplantation?

modern light bulb?

Many ways to create your report!

Select one of these options

Create a written report using MS Word/Google Docs. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like. If you like, you can use the built-in voice-to-text; this will transcribe your words.

Create a video, using your favorite software & apps. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like. You’ll narrate it. Share the project as a video file with us.

Create a PowerPoint/Google Slides presentation. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like.

Create an Infographic. There are many websites and apps out there to do this. Choose your favorite apps. This will have images, text, perhaps short animations if you like.

Resources

Engineering & Technology History, People, and Milestones PBS Learning Media

Learning Standards

NGSS Science

HS-PS3-3. Design, build, and refine a device that works within given constraints to convert one form of energy into another form of energy.*

Crosscutting concepts – Influence of Science, Engineering and Technology on Society and the Natural World. Modern civilization depends on major technological systems. Engineers continuously modify these technological systems by applying scientific knowledge and engineering design practices to increase benefits while decreasing costs and risks.

Disciplinary Core Idea Progression Matrix – ETS2.B Manufacturing

Grade 6-8. The design and structure of any particular technology product reflects its function. Products can be manufactured using common processes controlled by either people or computers.
Grade 9-10 – Manufacturing processes can transform material properties to meet a need. Particular manufacturing processes are chosen based on the product design, materials used, precision needed, and safety.

History C3 Framework and the National Social Studies Standards

D2.Eco.13.9-12. Explain why advancements in technology and investments in capital goods and human capital increase economic growth and standards of living.

D2.Geo.7.6-8. Explain how changes in transportation and communication technology influence the spatial connections among human settlements and affect the diffusion of ideas and cultural practices.

D2.His.1.9-12. Evaluate how historical events and developments were shaped by unique circumstances of time and place as well as broader historical contexts.

Common Core

CCSS.ELA-LITERACY.W.8.4

Produce clear and coherent writing in which the development, organization, and style are appropriate to task, purpose, and audience.

CCSS.ELA-Literacy.WHST.9-10.6
CCSS.ELA-Literacy.WHST.11-12.6

Use technology, including the Internet, to produce, publish, and update individual or shared writing products, taking advantage of technology’s capacity to link to other information and to display information flexibly and dynamically.

Who invented these technologies evolved Loom Phone GPS radio

Types of time travel

Before discussing the physics and science of time travel, we first have to define what we mean by time travel. Here I am presenting several possible types of time travel.

I. What is time? Does time really even exist?

What is time? Where does time come from? In what way is time objective, something actually out there?  In what ways is time not real, but just a way that humans use to describe our perception of the universe?

To some extent, understanding these questions requires knowing something about thermodynamics especially the second law of thermodynamics. Beyond that, a deeper understanding of the nature of time may rely on understanding modern physics, especially quantum mechanics .

The following article discusses entropy and the thermodynamic arrow of time; the question of ‘does time really flow?, the concept of a block universe, and presentism versus eternalism – What is time?

II. Types of time Travel

This text is currently based on the 2008 version of the Wikipedia article.

1. There is a single fixed history, which is self-consistent and unchangeable.

In this view, everything happens on a single timeline which doesn’t contradict itself.

1.1 This can be simply achieved by applying the Novikov self-consistency principle, named after Dr. Igor Dmitrievich Novikov, Professor of Astrophysics at Copenhagen University. The principle states that the timeline is totally fixed, and any actions taken by a time traveler were part of history all along, so it is impossible for the time traveler to “change” history in any way.

from paradoxparkway.com

The time traveler’s actions may be the cause of events in their own past though, which leads to the potential for circular causation and the predestination paradox; for examples of circular causation, see Robert A. Heinlein’s story “By His Bootstraps”.

The Novikov consistency principle assumes certain conditions about what sort of time travel is possible. Specifically, it assumes either that there is only one timeline, or that any alternative timelines (such as those postulated by the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics) are not accessible.

Given these assumptions, the constraint that time travel must not lead to inconsistent outcomes could be seen merely as a tautology, a self-evident truth that can not possibly be false.

However, the Novikov self-consistency principle is intended to go beyond just the statement that history must be consistent, making the additional nontrivial assumption that the universe obeys the same local laws of physics in situations involving time travel that it does in regions of space-time that lack closed timelike curves. This is clarified in the paper “Cauchy problem in spacetimes with closed timelike curves”, where the authors write:

That the principle of self-consistency is not totally tautological becomes clear when one considers the following alternative: The laws of physics might permit CTCs; and when CTCs occur, they might trigger new kinds of local physics which we have not previously met. … The principle of self-consistency is intended to rule out such behavior. It insists that local physics is governed by the same types of physical laws as we deal with in the absence of CTCs: the laws that entail self-consistent single valuedness for the fields. In essence, the principle of self-consistency is a principle of no new physics. If one is inclined from the outset to ignore or discount the possibility of new physics, then one will regard self-consistency as a trivial principle.

1.2 Alternatively, new physical laws take effect regarding time travel that thwarts attempts to change the past (contradicting the assumption mentioned in 1.1 above that the laws that apply to time travelers are the same ones that apply to everyone else).

These new physical laws can be as unsubtle as to reject time travelers who travel to the past to change it by pulling them back to the point from when they came as Michael Moorcock’s The Dancers at the End of Time or where the traveler is rendered an noncorporeal phantom unable to physically interact with the past such as in some Pre-Crisis Superman stories and Michael Garrett’s “Brief Encounter” in Twilight Zone Magazine May 1981.

 

2. History is flexible and is subject to change (Plastic Time)

2.1 Changes to history are easy and can impact the traveler, the world, or both

Examples include Back to the Future, Back to the Future II, and Doctor Who.

In some cases (such as Doctor Who) any resulting paradoxes can be devastating, threatening the very existence of the universe. In other cases the traveler simply cannot return home. The extreme version of this (Chaotic Time) is that history is very sensitive to changes with even small changes having large impacts such as in Ray Bradbury’s A Sound of Thunder

2.2 History is change resistant in direct relationship to the importance of the event i.e. small trivial events can be readily changed but large ones take great effort.

In the Twilight Zone episode “Back There” a traveler tries to prevent the assassination of President Lincoln and fails but his actions have turned what had originally been the butler of the club that the traveler belonged to into a rich tycoon.
In The Time Machine (2002 film) it is explained via a vision why Hartdegen could not save his sweetheart Emma–doing so would have resulted in him never developing the time machine he used to try and save her.

The Saga of Darren Shan, where major events in the past cannot be changed, but minor events can be affected. Under this model, if a time traveler were to go back in time and kill Hitler, another Nazi would simply take his place and commit his same actions, leaving the broader course of history unchanged.

 

3. Many-worlds interpretation and Parallel universe (fiction)

These terms are often used interchangeably in fiction but mechanically they differ:

The Many Worlds interpretation says time travel creates a coexisting alternate history –

while the second idea says that the traveler actually goes to an already existing parallel world.

In either case the traveler’s original home reality continues to exist unaffected. These versions of time travel are sometimes placed under one of the two above categories.

James P. Hogan’s The Proteus Operation fully explains parallel universe time travel in chapter 20 where it has Einstein explaining that all the outcomes already exist and all time travel does is change which already existing branch you will experience.

Star Trek has a long tradition of using the 2.1 mechanic, as seen in the episodes City on the Edge of Forever, Tomorrow is Yesterday, Time and Again (Star Trek: Voyager), Future’s End, Before and After (Star Trek: Voyager), Endgame (Star Trek: Voyager) and as late as Enterprise’s Temporal Cold War,

The Star Trek episode Parallels had an example of what Data called a quantum realities. His exact words on the matter were “But there is a theory in quantum physics that all possibilities that can happen do happen in alternate quantum realities.” leaving it up the viewer as to the exact nature of these quantum realities.

Michael Crichton’s novel Timeline takes the approach that all time travel really is is travel to an already existing parallel universe where time passes at a slower rate than our own but changes in any of these parallel universe effects the main timeline making it behave as it if was a type 2 universe.

Discussion

While a Type 1 universe will prevent a grandfather paradox it doesn’t prevent paradoxes in other aspects of physics such as the predestination paradox and the ontological paradox (GURPS Infinite Worlds calls this Free Lunch Paradox).

The predestination paradox is where the traveler’s actions create some type of causal loop, in which some event A in the future helps cause event B in the past via time travel, and the event B in turn is one of the causes of A.

For instance, a time traveler might go back to investigate a specific historical event like the Great Fire of London, and their actions in the past could then inadvertently end up being the original cause of that very event.

Examples of this kind of causal loop are found in Timemaster, a novel by Dr. Robert Forward, the Twilight Zone episode “No Time Like the Past”, the 1980 Jeannot Szwarc film Somewhere In Time (based on Richard Matheson’s novel Bid Time Return), the Michael Moorcock novel Behold the Man, and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.

The Novikov self-consistency principle can also result in an ontological paradox (also known as the knowledge or information paradox) where the very existence of some object or information is a time loop.

The philosopher Kelley L. Ross argues in Time Travel Paradoxes that in an ontological paradox scenario involving a physical object, there can be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics. Ross uses Somewhere in Time as an example where Jane Seymour’s character gives Christopher Reeve’s character a watch she has owned for many years, and when he travels back in time he gives the same watch to Jane Seymour’s character 60 years in the past.

 

Time travel to the future in standard physics

There are various ways in which a person could “travel into the future” in a limited sense: the person could set things up so that in a small amount of his own subjective time, a large amount of subjective time has passed for other people on Earth.

For example, an observer might take a trip away from the Earth and back at relativistic velocities, with the trip only lasting a few years according to the observer’s own clocks, and return to find that thousands of years had passed on Earth.

This form of “travel into the future” is theoretically allowed using the following methods:

Using velocity-based time dilation under the theory of special relativity, for instance:

Traveling at almost the speed of light to a distant star, then slowing down, turning around, and traveling at almost the speed of light back to Earth. (see the Twin paradox)

Using gravitational time dilation under the theory of general relativity, for instance:

Residing inside of a hollow, high-mass object;

Residing just outside of the event horizon of a black hole, or sufficiently near an object whose mass or density causes the gravitational time dilation near it to be larger than the time dilation factor on Earth.

Additionally, it might be possible to see the distant future of the Earth using methods which do not involve relativity at all, although it is even more debatable whether these should be deemed a form of “time travel”:

Hibernation

Suspended animation

Time Dilation

Time dilation is permitted by Albert Einstein’s special and general theories of relativity. These theories state that, relative to a given observer, time passes more slowly for bodies moving quickly relative to that observer, or bodies that are deeper within a gravity well. For example, a clock which is moving relative to the observer will be measured to run slow in that observer’s rest frame; as a clock approaches the speed of light it will almost slow to a stop, although it can never quite reach light speed so it will never completely stop.

stars rotating overhead camping timelapse
http://i.imgur.com/SLf5dW1.gifv

For two clocks moving inertially (not accelerating) relative to one another, this effect is reciprocal, with each clock measuring the other to be ticking slower. However, the symmetry is broken if one clock accelerates, as in the twin paradox where one twin stays on Earth while the other travels into space, turns around (which involves acceleration), and returns—in this case both agree the traveling twin has aged less.

General relativity states that time dilation effects also occur if one clock is deeper in a gravity well than the other, with the clock deeper in the well ticking more slowly; this effect must be taken into account when calibrating the clocks on the satellites of the Global Positioning System, and it could lead to significant differences in rates of aging for observers at different distances from a black hole.

Time perception

Time perception can be apparently sped up for living organisms through hibernation, where the body temperature and metabolic rate of the creature is reduced. A more extreme version of this is suspended animation, where the rates of chemical processes in the subject would be severely reduced.

Time dilation and suspended animation only allow “travel” to the future, never the past, so they do not violate causality, and it’s debatable whether they should be called time travel.

However time dilation can be viewed as a better fit for our understanding of the term “time travel” than suspended animation, since with time dilation less time actually does pass for the traveler than for those who remain behind, so the traveler can be said to have reached the future faster than others, whereas with suspended animation this is not the case.

 

Mutable timelines

Time travel in a Type 2 universe is much more complex. The biggest problem is how to explain changes in the past. One method of explanation is that once the past changes, so too do the memories of all observers. This would mean that no observer would ever observe the changing of the past (because they will not remember changing the past).

This would make it hard to tell whether you are in a Type 1 universe or a Type 2 universe.

You could, however, infer such information by knowing if a) communication with the past were possible or b) it appeared that the time line had never been changed as a result of an action someone remembers taking, although evidence exists that other people are changing their time lines fairly often.

An example of this kind of universe is presented in Thrice Upon a Time, a novel by James P. Hogan. The Back to the Future trilogy films also seem to feature a single mutable timeline (see the Back to the Future FAQ for details on how the writers imagined time travel worked in the movies’ world). By contrast, the short story “Brooklyn Project” by William Tenn provides a sketch of life in a Type 2 world where no one even notices as the timeline changes repeatedly.

In type 2.1, attempts are being made at changing the timeline, however, all that is accomplished in the first tries is that the method in which decisive events occur is changed; final conclusions in the bigger scheme cannot be brought to a different outcome.

As an example, the movie Deja Vu depicts a paper note sent to the past with vital information to prevent a terrorist attack. However, the vital information results in the killing of an ATF agent, but does not prevent the terrorist attack; the very same agent died in the previous version of the timeline as well, albeit under different circumstances. Finally, the timeline is changed by sending a human into the past, arguably a “stronger” measure than simply sending back a paper note, which results in preventing both a murder and the terrorist attack. As in the Back to the Future movie trilogy, there seems to be a ripple effect too as changes from the past “propagate” into the present, and people in the present have altered memory of events that occurred after the changes made to the timeline.

The science fiction writer Larry Niven suggests in his essay “The Theory and Practice of Time Travel” that in a type 2.1 universe, the most efficient way for the universe to “correct” a change is for time travel to never be discovered, and that in a type 2.2 universe, the very large (or infinite) number of time travelers from the endless future will cause the timeline to change wildly until it reaches a history in which time travel is never discovered.

However, many other “stable” situations might also exist in which time travel occurs but no paradoxes are created; if the changeable-timeline universe finds itself in such a state no further changes will occur, and to the inhabitants of the universe it will appear identical to the type 1.1 scenario.[citation needed] This is sometimes referred to as the “Time Dilution Effect”.

Few if any physicists or philosophers have taken seriously the possibility of “changing” the past except in the case of multiple universes, and in fact many have argued that this idea is logically incoherent, so the mutable timeline idea is rarely considered outside of science fiction.

Also, deciding whether a given universe is of Type 2.1 or 2.2 can not be done objectively, as the categorization of timeline-invasive measures as “strong” or “weak” is arbitrary, and up to interpretation: An observer can disagree about a measure being “weak”, and might, in the lack of context, argue instead that simply a mishap occurred which then led to no effective change.

An example would be the paper note sent back to the past in the film Deja Vu, as described above. Was it a “too weak” change, or was it just a local-time alteration which had no extended effect on the larger timeline? As the universe in Deja Vu seems not entirely immune to paradoxes (some arguably minute paradoxes do occur), both versions seem to be equally possible.

Alternate histories

In Type 3, any event that appears to have caused a paradox has instead created a new time line. The old time line remains unchanged, with the time traveler or information sent simply having vanished, never to return. A difficulty with this explanation, however, is that conservation of mass-energy would be violated for the origin timeline and the destination timeline.

A possible solution to this is to have the mechanics of time travel require that mass-energy be exchanged in precise balance between past and future at the moment of travel, or to simply expand the scope of the conservation law to encompass all timelines. Some examples of this kind of time travel can be found in David Gerrold’s book The Man Who Folded Himself and The Time Ships by Stephen Baxter, plus several episodes of the TV show Star Trek: The Next Generation.

 

Molecular Orbitals

Content objective (What are we learning & why?)

Lewis theory and the octet rule are not enough to describe the shapes of molecules and many of their properties.
To go beyond such limitations we learn molecular orbital theory.

Prerequisites (What do we need to know before starting this unit?)

Lewis structures; the octet rule; covalent & ionic bonds

sub-atomic particles;  s, p, d, and f orbitals

the wave nature of matterSchrödinger model of the atom

Shorthand notation reminder

e- = electron

Introduction

By this time it may be no surprise to you that the name of this theory – molecular orbitals – is a misnomer. There are no orbitals involved.

We should really call this

“Three dimensional electron-clouds, overlapping with other three dimensional electron-clouds, to make even more complicated and pretty electron-clouds theory”

But that’s way too many words. So “molecular orbitals” it is 😉

Remember, electrons are not solid objects like billiard balls.

And e- don’t really orbit an atom’s nucleus.

Electrons are better described as a rippling waves.

How does the Schrödinger equation create orbitals?

When we interact with e- in certain ways, sure they have particle-like properties.

But most of the time they have wave-like properties.

If you feel like it, you can learn a bit about quantum mechanics here.

What does this mean? When atoms get close to each other, the 3D wave function of one e- overlaps with the 3D wave function of another e-.

This creates constructive interference and destructive interference:

high parts of one wave combine with high parts of another wave to make even higher waves

A high part of a wave can be canceled out by hitting a low point of another wave.

Electrons work like this – except they have three dimensional waves (the GIF above is only 2D.)

In this unit we’re going to see what happens to the shape of orbitals when atoms come close enough to bond with each other.

===========================================

This next section has been adapted from Prentice Hall Chemistry by Wilbraham, Staley, Matta and Waterman.

Sigma Bonds

Atomic orbitals can combine to form a molecular orbital that is symmetrical around the axis connecting atomic nuclei. This is called a sigma bond.

We use the Greek letter sigma (σ).

Covalent bonding results from an imbalance between the attractions and repulsions of the nuclei and e- involved.

This next image is from Valence Bond Theory, LibreTexts

Because their charges have opposite signs, the nuclei and e- attract each other.

Because their charges have the same sign, nuclei repel other nuclei, and e- repel other e-.

In a hydrogen molecule (H2), the nuclei repel each other, as do the e-.

In a bonding molecular orbital of hydrogen, however, the attractions between the H nuclei and the e- are stronger than the repulsions.

The balance of all the interactions between the H atoms is thus tipped in favor of holding the atoms together.

The result is a stable, diatomic molecule of H2.

Atomic p orbitals can also overlap to form molecular orbitals.

A fluorine atom, for example, has a half-filled 2p orbital.

When two fluorine atoms combine then the p orbitals overlap to produce a bonding molecular orbital.

There is a high probability of finding a pair of e- between the positively charged nuclei of the two fluorines.

The fluorine nuclei are attracted to this region of high e- density.

This attraction holds the atoms together in the fluorine molecule (F2).

The overlap of the 2p orbitals produces a bonding molecular orbital that is symmetrical when viewed around the F⎯F bond axis connecting the nuclei.

Therefore, the F⎯F bond is a sigma bond.

Pi bonds, π bonds

“Pi” is symbolized by the Greek letter π.

In the sigma bond of the F2 molecule, the p atomic orbitals overlap end-to-end.

In some molecules, however, orbitals can overlap side-by-side.

The side-by-side overlap of atomic p orbitals produces pi molecular orbitals.

When a pi molecular orbital is filled with two electrons, a pi bond results.

In a pi bond, the bonding e- are most likely to be found in sausage-shaped regions above and below the bond axis of the bonded atoms.

It is not symmetrical around the F⎯F bond axis.

Atomic orbitals in pi bonding overlap less than in sigma bonding.

Therefore, pi bonds tend to be weaker than sigma bonds.

===========================================

Bonding and antibonding

When orbitals interact, the result can be bonding or antibonding.

Bonding molecular orbitals

Occurs when the interactions between the orbitals are constructive.

They are lower in energy than the orbitals that combine to produce them.

Antibonding molecular orbitals

Occurs when the interactions between the orbitals are are destructive (out-of-phase.)

The destructive interference creates a long, thin, region where the probability of finding an e- is effectively zero. We call this region a nodal plane.

They are basically an orbital containing an e- outside the region between the two nuclei.

They are higher in energy than the orbitals that combine to produce them.

Do both bonding and antibonding orbitals exist in the same molecule at the same time?

Yes. They both can develop as atoms come together to form a molecule. Both exist at the same time.

The resultant behavior of the molecule depends on how all the orbitals – bonding and antibonding – add together.

Let’s watch Pi orbitals develop

Here we see the Pi bonding orbital forming as P orbitals, from two atoms moving closer, slowly come together.

Pi bonding molecular orbital

Here we see two P orbitals come together to form what is known as the antibonding Pi orbital. Notice that we see a nodal plane develop!

Pi antibonding molecular orbital showing nodal plane

These two animations were created by Mohammad Alhudaithi using Wolfram Alpha. See Visualizing Molecular Orbitals for One Electron Diatomic Molecules.

Example: two O atoms bonding

Here we see 2 O atoms bonding together to create an O2 molecule.

Each atom has its own three-dimensional e- orbitals.

As the atoms get closer the wave functions overlap. The subsequent constructive and destructive interference creates a new three dimensional shape, one for the molecule as a whole.

The original 2s and 2p atomic orbitals merge to create Sigma and Pi orbitals. These bind the atoms together.

The 1s orbitals do not combine and still show the individual atoms.

This GIF is from O2 Molecular Orbitals Animation at Wikimedia by Kilohn Limahn.

________________________________________

Deep thoughts

Because arguments based on atomic orbitals focus on the bonds formed between valence electrons on an atom, they are often said to involve a valence-bond theory.

The valence-bond model can’t adequately explain the fact that some molecules contains two equivalent bonds with a bond order between that of a single bond and a double bond.

The best it can do is suggest that these molecules are mixtures, or hybrids, of the two Lewis structures that can be written for these molecules.

This problem, and many others, can be overcome by using a more sophisticated model of bonding based on molecular orbitals.

Molecular orbital theory is more powerful than valence-bond theory because the orbitals reflect the geometry of the molecule to which they are applied. But this power carries a significant cost in terms of the ease with which the model can be visualized.

Molecular Orbital Theory, Purdue, Chemical Education Division Groups, Bodner Research Web, General Chemistry Help, The Covalent bond

________________________________________

Deep thoughts

Molecular Orbital theory (MO) is the most important quantum mechanical theory for describing bonding in molecules. It is an approximate theory (as any theory that utilizes “orbitals”), but it is a very good approximation of the bonding.

The MO perspective on electrons in molecules is very different from that of a localized bonding picture such as valence bond (VB) theory.

In VB we describe particular bonds as coming from the overlap of orbitals on atomic centers.

In MO this idea is not completely gone, but now rather than just looking at individual bonds, MO describes the whole molecule as one big system.

The orbitals from MO theory are spread out over the entire molecule rather than being associated with a bond between only two atoms.

Each MO can have a particular shape such that some orbitals have greater electron density in one place or another, but in the end the orbitals now “belong” to the molecule rather than any particular bond.

For diatomic molecules (which we look at a lot), the VB picture and the MO picture are very similar. This is because the whole molecule is simply two atoms bonded together. The difference become more apparent when we look at MO in larger molecules.

Molecular orbitals, Chemistry 301 , Univ of Texas

________________________________________

Teaching molecular orbitals with the relationships analogy:

This is a great lesson which starts of simple and then brings you into a series of analogy that eventually lets you understand the topic:

From the introduction – “A lot of people say they’re happy being single, and I believe that many likely are. But in the back of their mind of many single people is the thought that if they just found the right person, they might be even happier – or less unhappy, which is a crappy way to look at it psychologically but necessary if you wish to draw a diagram where a “happy couple” is occupying a “potential energy well”, below.”

and then analogies and diagrams grow from here…

Bonding And Antibonding Pi Orbitals, by James Ashenhurst, Master organic chemistry

________________________________________

Relating molecular orbital theory to quantum mechanics and standing waves

The Lewis Structure approach provides an extremely simple method for determining the electronic structure of many molecules. It is a bit simplistic, however, and does have trouble predicting structures for a few molecules.

Nevertheless, it gives a reasonable structure for many molecules and its simplicity to use makes it a very useful tool for chemists.

A more general, but slightly more complicated approach is the Molecular Orbital Theory. This theory builds on the electron wave functions of Quantum Mechanics to describe chemical bonding.

To understand MO Theory let’s first review constructive and destructive interference of standing waves starting with the full constructive and destructive interference that occurs when standing waves overlap completely.

Molecular Orbital Theory by Philip J. Grandinetti

________________________________________

Very advanced questions

Valence electrons are associated with molecular orbitals and hybridizations. Do core electrons have molecular/hybridized orbitals, or the original atomic orbitals?

Do core electrons have molecular orbitals?

Apps and interactives

Real-Time Visualization of the Quantum Mechanical Atomic Orbitals, Dauger Research, Atom In A Box, app for Macintosh and iPad

Octet rule exceptions

When we draw electron structures or orbital box diagrams, we are following a pattern, the octet “rule.” But there are many exceptions to this pattern, especially with heavier atoms and transition metals.

See page 190, Prentice Hall Chemistry, Wilbraham et al. Section 7.1 ions.

Article

This section excerpted from 9.6: Exceptions to the Octet Rule, from Chemistry: Principles, Patterns, and Applications by Bruce A. Averill and Patricia Eldredge.

General exceptions to the octet rule include molecules that have an odd number of electrons and molecules in which one or more atoms possess more or fewer than eight electrons.

Molecules with an odd number of electrons are relatively rare in the s and p blocks but rather common among the d– and f-block elements.

Compounds with more than an octet of electrons around an atom are called expanded-valence molecules.

One model to explain their existence uses one or more d orbitals in bonding in addition to the valence ns and np orbitals.

Such species are known for only atoms in period 3 or below, which contain nd subshells in their valence shell.

Learning Objective: assign a Lewis dot symbol to elements not having an octet of electrons in their compounds.

Lewis dot structures provide a simple model for rationalizing the bonding in most known compounds. However, there are three general exceptions to the octet rule:

  1. Molecules, such as NO, with an odd number of electrons;

  2. Molecules in which one or more atoms possess more than eight electrons, such as SF6; and

  3. Molecules such as BCl3, in which one or more atoms possess less than eight electrons.

 

Odd Number of Electrons

Because most molecules or ions that consist of s– and p-block elements contain even numbers of electrons, their bonding can be described using a model that assigns every electron to either a bonding pair or a lone pair.

Molecules or ions containing d-block elements frequently contain an odd number of electrons, and their bonding cannot adequately be described using the simple approach we have developed so far.

There are, however, a few molecules containing only p-block elements that have an odd number of electrons.

Some important examples are nitric oxide (NO), whose biochemical importance was described in earlier chapters; nitrogen dioxide (NO2), an oxidizing agent in rocket propulsion; and chlorine dioxide (ClO2), which is used in water purification plants.

Consider NO, for example. With 5 + 6 = 11 valence electrons, there is no way to draw a Lewis structure that gives each atom an octet of electrons.

Molecules such as NO, NO2, and ClO2 require a more sophisticated treatment of bonding.

Example 1: The NO Molecule. Draw the Lewis structure for the molecule nitrous oxide (NO).

5. There are currently 5 valence electrons around the nitrogen.

A double bond would place 7 electrons around the nitrogen, and a triple bond would place 9 around the nitrogen. We appear unable to get an octet around each atom.

 

More Than an Octet of Electrons

The most common exception to the octet rule is a molecule or an ion with at least one atom that possesses more than an octet of electrons. Such compounds are found for elements of period 3 and beyond.

Examples from the p-block elements include SF6, a substance used by the electric power industry to insulate high-voltage lines, and the SO42− and PO43− ions.

Let’s look at sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), whose Lewis structure must accommodate a total of 48 valence electrons [6 + (6 × 7) = 48].

If we arrange the atoms and electrons symmetrically, we obtain a structure with six bonds to sulfur; that is, it is six-coordinate.

Each fluorine atom has an octet, but the sulfur atom has 12 electrons surrounding it rather than 8.

The third step in our procedure for writing Lewis electron structures, in which we place an electron pair between each pair of bonded atoms, requires that an atom have more than 8 electrons whenever it is bonded to more than 4 other atoms.

Basis of the octet rule

The octet rule is based on the fact that each valence orbital (typically, one ns and three np orbitals) can accommodate only two electrons.

To accommodate more than eight electrons, sulfur must be using not only the ns and np valence orbitals but additional orbitals as well.

Sulfur has an [Ne]3s23p43d0 electron configuration, so in principle it could accommodate more than eight valence electrons by using one or more d orbitals.

Thus, species such as SF6 are often called expanded-valence molecules.

Whether or not such compounds really do use d orbitals in bonding is controversial, but this model explains why compounds exist with more than an octet of electrons around an atom.

There is no correlation between the stability of a molecule or an ion and whether or not it has an expanded valence shell.

Some species with expanded valences, such as PF5, are highly reactive, whereas others, such as SF6, are very unreactive.

In fact, SF6 is so inert that it has many commercial applications. In addition to its use as an electrical insulator, it is used as the coolant in some nuclear power plants, and it is the pressurizing gas in “unpressurized” tennis balls.

An expanded valence shell is often written for oxoanions of the heavier p-block elements, such as sulfate (SO42−) and phosphate (PO43−).

Sulfate, for example, has a total of 32 valence electrons [6 + (4 × 6) + 2]. If we use a single pair of electrons to connect the sulfur and each oxygen, we obtain the four-coordinate Lewis structure

(a). We know that sulfur can accommodate more than eight electrons by using its empty valence d orbitals, just as in SF6.

An alternative structure (b) can be written with S=O double bonds, making the sulfur again six-coordinate.

We can draw five other resonance structures equivalent to (b) that vary only in the arrangement of the single and double bonds.

In fact, experimental data show that the S-to-O bonds in the SO42− ion are intermediate in length between single and double bonds, as expected for a system whose resonance structures all contain two S–O single bonds and two S=O double bonds.

When calculating the formal charges on structures (a) and (b), we see that the S atom in (a) has a formal charge of +2, whereas the S atom in (b) has a formal charge of 0.

Thus by using an expanded octet, a +2 formal charge on S can be eliminated.

Less Than an Octet of Electrons

Molecules with atoms that possess less than an octet of electrons generally contain the lighter s- and p-block elements.

Especially so for beryllium, typically with just four electrons around the central atom, and with boron, typically with six.

One example, boron trichloride (BCl3) is used to produce fibers for reinforcing high-tech tennis rackets and golf clubs.

The compound has 24 valence electrons and the following Lewis structure:

The boron atom has only six valence electrons, while each chlorine atom has eight.

A reasonable solution might be to use a lone pair from one of the chlorine atoms to form a B-to-Cl double bond:

This resonance structure, however, results in a formal charge of +1 on the doubly bonded Cl atom and −1 on the B atom.

The high electronegativity of Cl makes this separation of charge unlikely and suggests that this is not the most important resonance structure for BCl3.

This conclusion is shown to be valid based on the three equivalent B–Cl bond lengths of 173 pm that have no double bond character.

Electron-deficient compounds such as BCl3 have a strong tendency to gain an additional pair of electrons by reacting with species with a lone pair of electrons.

Example 8

Draw Lewis dot structures for each compound.

(a) BeCl2 gas, a compound used to produce beryllium, which in turn is used to produce structural materials for missiles and communication satellites.

(b) SF4, a compound that reacts violently with water

Include resonance structures where appropriate.

Given: two compounds

Asked for: Lewis electron structures

Strategy:

(A) Use the procedure given earlier to write a Lewis electron structure for each compound. If necessary, place any remaining valence electrons on the element most likely to be able to accommodate more than an octet.

(B) After all the valence electrons have been placed, decide whether you have drawn an acceptable Lewis structure.

Solution:

(A) Because it is the least electronegative element, Be is the central atom. The molecule has 16 valence electrons (2 from Be and 7 from each Cl). Drawing two Be–Cl bonds and placing three lone pairs on each Cl gives the following structure:

(B) Although this arrangement gives beryllium only 4 electrons, it is an acceptable Lewis structure for BeCl2. Beryllium is known to form compounds in which it is surrounded by less than an octet of electrons.

Now let’s draw a structure for SF4:

Sulfur is the central atom because it is less electronegative than fluorine.

The molecule has 34 valence electrons (6 from S and 7 from each F).

The S–F bonds use 8 electrons, and another 24 are placed around the F atoms:

The only place to put the remaining 2 electrons is on the sulfur, giving sulfur 10 valence electrons:

Sulfur can accommodate more than an octet, so this is an acceptable Lewis structure.

Example: Draw Lewis dot structures for XeF4 .

Notes

  • In oxoanions of the heavier p-block elements, the central atom often has an expanded valence shell.

  • Molecules with atoms that have fewer than an octet of electrons generally contain the lighter s- and p-block elements.

  • Electron-deficient compounds have a strong tendency to gain electrons in their reactions.

This section of this resource is available as Creative Commons Non Commercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)

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Resources

8.7: Exceptions to the Octet Rule, Chemistry: The Central Science by Brown, LeMay, Busten, Murphy, and Woodward

9.6: Exceptions to the Octet Rule Chemistry: Principles, Patterns, and Applications by Bruce A. Averill and Patricia Eldredge

9.11 Exceptions to the Octet Rule, CK-12 Chemistry for High School FlexBook

Exceptions to the Octet Rule, General Chemistry I, Dr. Michael Blaber

8.8 Exceptions to the Octet Rule Chemistry, Prentice Hall

CoreChem:Exceptions to the Octet Rule

 

Why are there exceptions to the octet rule?

Because the octet “rule” was never a rule in the first place.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-octet-rule-in-chemistry-Are-there-any-exceptions-to-it

https://www.quora.com/Why-does-boron-violate-the-octet-rule

Advanced Placement Chemistry discussion

Exceptions to the octet rule and resonances

Trihydridoboron, also known as borane or borine, is an unstable and highly reactive molecule with the chemical formula BH
3. The preparation of borane carbonyl, BH3(CO), played an important role in exploring the chemistry of boranes, as it indicated the likely existence of the borane molecule.[1] However, the molecular species BH3 is a very strong Lewis acid. Consequently it is highly reactive and can only be observed directly as a continuously produced, transitory, product in a flow system or from the reaction of laser ablated atomic boron with hydrogen.

See https://www.quora.com/Why-do-incomplete-octets-occur