If we assume global warming is a hoax, what should we expect to see
This analysis is by Phil Plait, Mar 9, 2017

I will ask you to indulge me for a moment in a thought experiment. It’s not hard, and it leads to a startlingly simple yet powerful conclusion, one I think you may find both important and terribly useful.
Still, it starts with a big ask, so forgive me. And that is: Let’s make an assumption, one you’ve heard many times before. Let’s say that global warming is a hoax.
I know, I know. But go with this, here. So, yes, let’s say that climate change deniers —people like House Science, Space, and Technology Committee chairman Lamar Smith, Senator James Inhofe, and even Donald Trump himself— are right. Whatever the reasons (Chinese hoax, climatologist cabal clamoring colossal cash, carbon dioxide isn’t a powerful greenhouse gas, or just a liberal conspiracy), let’s say that the Earth is not warming up.
In that case, the temperatures we see today on average should be much like the ones we saw, say, 20 years ago. Or 50. Sure, you’d see fluctuations. In a given spot on a given day the temperature in 1968 might have been a degree warmer than it was in 1974, or three degrees cooler than in 2010. But what you’d expect is that over time, a graph showing the temperature would be pretty much flat, with lots of short-term spikes up and down.
Now, statistically speaking, you expect some records to be broken every now and again. Over time, every few years for a given day you’d get a record high, and every few years a record low. The details will change from place to place and time to time, but again, if the average temperature trend is flat, unchanging, then you would expect to see just as many record cold days as record warm days. There might be small deviations, like, say, a handful of more cool than warm days, but the difference would be very small depending on how many days you look at.
It’s like flipping a coin. On average, you should get a 50/50 split between heads and tails. But if you flip it 10 times, say, you wouldn’t be shocked to see seven heads and three tails. But if you flip it a thousand times, you’d really expect to see a very even split. Seeing 700 heads and 300 tails would be truly extraordinary.
So, if we remind ourselves of our basic assumption —global warming isn’t real— then we expect there to be as many record high days as there are record lows. Simple statistics.
So, what do we see?
Guy Walton, a meteorologist in Georgia, took a look at the data from the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information. Whenever a weather station in the US breaks a record, high or low, it’s catalogued (Walton has more info on this at the link above). He found something astonishing: For February 2017, the number of record highs across the US recorded was 6,201.
The number of record lows? 128.
That’s a ratio of over 48:1. In just one month.
Again, if temperatures were flat over time, and record highs and lows were random fluctuations, you’d expect a ratio much closer to 1:1. In other words, out of 6329 records set in total, you’d expect there to be about 3165 record highs, and 3165 record lows.
For fans of statistics, with a total of 6329 records broken, one standard deviation is the square root of that, or about 80. So, sure, something like 3265 highs and 3064 lows wouldn’t be too unusual. If you start to see more of an imbalance than that, it would be weird.
Seeing 6201 record highs to 128 lows is very, very, very weird. Like, zero chance of that happening by accident.
Now, Phil, I can hear you thinking, that’s just for the US (2% of the planet) over one month. And you’ve told us before that weather isn’t climate; weather is what you expect now, climate is what you expect over long periods of time. So, maybe this is a fluke?
Walton notes that, if you look at records in the US going back to the 1920s, the six highest ratios of record highs to lows all occur since the 1990s. Huh.
And making this more global, a pair of Australian scientists looked at their country’s data, and found that their ratios were about even…until the 1960s. After that, highs always outnumber lows. From 2000-2014, record highs outnumbered lows there by 12:1.
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research collated data from 1800 stations across the US and binned the data by decade — by decade, which is a huge sample; any deviation from a 1:1 ratio would be extraordinary over that timescale.

This graphic shows the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations in the 48 contiguous United States from January 1950 through September 2009. Each bar shows the proportion of record highs (red) to record lows (blue) for each decade. The 1960s and 1970s saw slightly more record daily lows than highs, but in the last 30 years record highs have increasingly predominated, with the ratio now about two-to-one for the 48 states as a whole. (©UCAR, graphic by Mike Shibao.)
Source of the above image: RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FAR OUTPACE RECORD LOWS ACROSS U.S. The National Center for Atmospheric Research/UCAR, Nov 12, 2009
We are seeing far more record high temperatures than record lows in the US… and in other countries, too. Credit: UCAR
Huh. Not only are there more record highs than lows, the ratio between the two is getting higher with time.
So, looking back at our initial assumption — the Earth isn’t warming, and temperatures are flat— there’s a conclusion these data are screaming at us: That assumption is completely and utterly wrong.
And of course, all the evidence backs this up. All of it. Earth’s temperature is increasing. That’s because of the 40 billion tons of extra carbon dioxide humans put into the atmosphere every year (the amount we will see this year, expected to top 410 parts per million, has never been seen before in history as long as humans have walked the Earth). This CO2 allows sunlight to warm the Earth, but prevents all of it from escaping so that a little bit of extra heat remains behind, and that’s warming our planet.
Over time, we’re getting hotter. 2014 was a record hot year, beaten by 2015, itself beaten by 2016. In fact, 15 of the 16 hottest years ever recorded have been from 2001 – 2016. That’s exactly what you’d expect if we were getting warmer, and that means our initial assumption of hoaxery was dead wrong.
The science on this is so basic, the evidence of this so overwhelming, that “not a single national science academy disputes or denies the scientific consensus around human-caused climate change”, and also the overwhelming majority of scientists who study climate do, too.
Maybe you should listen to them, and not politicians who seem ideologically opposed to the science.
Or, you could flip a coin. But if it comes up science dozens of times more often than anti-science, well —and forgive me if I sound like a broken record— the conclusion is obvious.
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Healthy meal generator
The ingredients can be combined in hundreds of ways to make a delicious dinner.
It often takes just 15 minutes of prep and 15 minutes of cooking.

photo by Anna Ivanova
Start – pick one protein
Chicken breast or thigh meat, cut into pieces
Vegan chik’n (e.g. Trader Joe’s or Gardein Chik’n)
Beef strips/tips
Vegan beef (e.g. Trader Joe’s or Gardein Beef-less tips)
Tofu (firm)
Tempeh
Any other favorite protein source
Pick a carbohydrate
Cook these in a separate pot. Lay this down as the base for your meal. The vegetables, proteins and sauce go aside or over this.
Brown rice
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Quinoa
Spaghetti or angel hair pasta
Mung bean vermicelli
Rice pasta
Pick a few veggies
Have a different combination each time!
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Summer squash
Carrots
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If you like, add nuts
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Instructions
Dice your meat/protein source into small pieces, like the size of pieces you see at those food court restaurants at the shopping mall.
Add a small amount of oil to the wok. Usually peanut oil, but can be olive oil or any other favorite cooking oil.
In a separate pot, boil water. When boiling add your carb/pasta/grains.
Drop the meat (or faux meat) into the wok. Rotate and move all the pieces so that each is covered in oil.
Cook on a medium flame for a few minutes.
If you use real meat you must stir-fry this first; it takes more time to fully and safely cook.
Once the meat is cooked you then add in all of the other ingredients into the wok.
At this point continue cooking until all of the ingredients are done to your liking.
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Healthy meal generator
Boston and sea levels
How can we protect Boston from rising sea levels? Various proposals
Build a dike around the harbor
The dikelands proposal – A 14-mile dike could protect Greater Boston from sea level rise.
It would run from Cohasset to Swampscott
…The metropolitan Boston estuary is uniquely different from many others around the nation. It is protected on its flanks by the shoulder highlands of Swampscott and Cohasset. It takes advantage of the estuary’s unique geological characteristics.

We propose building a 14-mile dike barrier between the shoulder highlands of Cohasset and Swampscott.
Would be located some eight miles out from Deer Island, complete with residential and commercial developments, windmills, solar collector farms, and recreational areas.
A simple dike barrier with a 200-foot-wide top and reaching 120 feet from seafloor to storm-surge top would require some 246 million cubic yards of material.
Bi-directional locks could provide access for all crafts, protecting Boston’s commercial activity and its waterfront integrity.
The new dike system will prevent storm tides from inundating the entire metropolitan estuary while allowing rivers to discharge their water into a harbor reservoir capable of holding more than 10 billion gallons of river-fed water…
By lowering the reservoir level to half the current tidal range, the cherished Boston Harbor Islands and their recreational potential would be protected.
At a cost of $100 per cubic yard, with two bi-directional shipping locks of $500 million each (plus soft and contingency costs), this macro-engineering and macro-economic project would probably cost between $30 billion and $50 billion.
The 200-foot wide top of the 14-mile stretch would create 68 acres of new dike lands, which in turn would need to be supported by a complete infrastructure system of water, sewer, electricity, and transportation …
The project could help pay for itself if the newly-created, flat-top area of the dike, amounting to some 68 acres, was sold as waterfront property at between $3 and $7 million per acre. That would raise between $100 billion and $400 billion (after return on invested capital)
Source: 14-mile dike could protect Greater Boston from sea level rise, Commonwealth Magazine, Jan 2018, Peter Papesch, Franziska Amacher and A. Vernon Woodworth, members of the Boston Society of Architects
Plan details Metro-Boston-Dike-Barrier.pdf
Climate Ready Boston: Planning
The team, led by Paul Kirshen, a professor of climate adaptation at UMass’ School for the Environment, is weighing three harbor barrier configurations. The barrier study was recommended in the city’s Climate Ready Boston report.
The smallest would connect Logan Airport in East Boston with Castle Island in South Boston, protecting the city’s inner harbor and downtown from tidal flooding.
The medium-sized solution is a barrier from Deer Island, in the harbor, to Quincy, which would wall off all of Boston’s neighborhoods.
The largest of the proposed harbor barriers would protect not just Boston, but also Weymouth, Hingham, Quincy and Hull.

III. Resilient Boston Harbor
We want to protect Boston’s neighborhoods from sea level rise and flooding due to climate change.
Adapted infrastructure: Elevated roadways, strengthened seawalls, and flood barriers.
Protective Waterfront parks: Waterfronts include living shorelines, beaches, elevated parks, and access to water transportation.

Elevated harborwalks:
By improving elevation and access, we can use our harborwalk system to protect against floods.

Make parts of Boston a city of canals
From the Urban Land Institute of Boston/New England’s “The Urban Implications of Living with Water”
Boston: The urban implications of living with water. Urban land institute
The goal is to provide for current urban linkages across the district without limiting the ability to accommodate future needs.
Such needs could take the form of green infrastructure or surface channels to move water safely and quickly back to the ocean.
We could build canals through Boston’s Back Bay

A street view of what this could look like

Literally raise the level of parts of Boston
Can lessons from Boston’s landfill, 250 years ago, help Boston deal with sea level rise today?
Alex Wilson, in A Bold Idea for Addressing Sea Level Rise, writes
… I was struck by the realization that 250 years ago Boston was an island, connected by just a single land-bridge …there must have been a fairly massive effort to build the current land base of Boston.
Might strategic land-building be an option for us as we are forced over the next century to address sea level rise as global warming melts the huge ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica?
…Rising seas are making life increasingly difficult in low-lying portions of dozens of U.S. cities today. The journal Nature Climate Change published a paper projecting the number of people in coastal regions of the U.S. who would be affected by sea level rise of 0.9 meters (3 feet) and 1.8 meters (5 feet). Unlike previous assessments of impact, this study considered not only current populations, but also projected population growth in these regions.

Populations in U.S. states that would be affected by 0.9 and 1.8 meter sea level rise.
Source: Nature Climate Change paper, “Millions Projected To Be At Risk From Sea-Level Rise in the Continental United States,” by Matthew Hauer, et. al., published online March 14, 2016.
By the year 2100, U.S. residents affected by 0.9 m and 1.8 m sea level rise would total 1.46 million and 3.85 million, respectively. Factoring in projected population growth in these regions, however, the number of people affected increases to 4.31 million and 13.1 million, respectively.
Can lessons from Boston’s landfill, 250 years ago, help with sea level rise today?
The comprehensive book, Gaining Ground: A History of Landmaking in Boston, by Nancy S. Seasholes, describes more than three centuries of effort to the Boston area to create new land and raise the elevation of existing land.
Beginning fairly early in Boston’s history—certainly by the 1700s—there was a massive effort to fill in the tidal flats around Boston. These efforts ultimately created some 5,250 acres of new land in Boston, East Boston, and Charlestown.
In other areas, the land was significantly raised with fill. The original peninsula of Boston, known as Shawmut by the Native Americans, was just 487 acres. Today, merged with surrounding land, it is many times that size.
…Boston’s well-known Back Bay region was originally the back bay of the Charles River—an extensive estuary on the western side of the Shawmut Peninsula.
The Fenway and Fenway Park (the Boston Red Sox’s home stadium) get their names from the fens or bogs in the area. It was only after extensive filling that building here was possible.
Logan Airport was open water in the 1930s. Today it is part of the extensive new land in East Boston.
I haven’t seen estimates of the amount of fill been used in Greater Boston over the last three centuries. If one assumes an average fill of six feet over the 5,250 acres of made land, that would total roughly 1.4 billion cubic feet or 50 million cubic yards.
I was particularly intrigued to learn in Gaining Ground that not only was new land made on the tidal flats of Boston, but in some places the elevation of existing land was raised. In the Church Street and Suffolk Street Districts (new Bay Village and Castle Square), sewage back-up was a problem in the mid-1800s, because there wasn’t enough pitch to the sewers (which no doubt dumped into the Bay).
The solution was to elevate the land and the buildings that were located there. In the 1860s, the City decided to raise the grade of the entire District. They would fill basements and abandon them, elevate buildings on cribbing and build new foundations beneath them.
On Church Street, starting in July 1868, the City hired contractors to bring in more than 150,000 cubic yards of fill and elevate 296 brick buildings by as much as 14 feet and 56 wooden buildings by as much as 17 feet.
Remarkably (by today’s standards), this work was virtually completed by October 1869—ahead of schedule and under budget.

A similar project was carried out in the Suffolk Street District starting in July 1870 and being completed by the end of 1872. Nearly 250,000 yards of fill were brought in, and 600 buildings were elevated—also under budget.
Boston isn’t alone in having seen extensive landmaking over the centuries. In Manhattan, several thousand acres of land were created using fill, and more than 3,000 acres were created in Chicago.
But nowhere in the U.S. has the landmaking been as extensive as in Boston.
What this suggests about our long-term response to rising sea levels is that we shouldn’t rule out the idea of raising the grade in our most important cities. I was astounded to learn just how significant the earthmoving was centuries ago; with today’s equipment and engineering prowess, one can imagine raising a low-lying city by tens of feet.
Of course, there would be huge challenges and tremendous costs with such an initiative, not to mention environmental risks. Our buildings are bigger than those in Boston were in the 1860s; they are closer together and more complex.
Our infrastructure—streets and highways, bridges, sewers, power grids, pipelines—are tremendously complex. And, we’re much more conscious of ecological damage today than we were 150 years ago.
But consider the alternative. Are we ready to abandon cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Charlestown? It could well be easier to raise a city than to move it. And we will have to figure this out before the end of this century. I don’t know if raising the elevation of our low-lying cities will make sense, but I think we should begin that discussion.
We can start by looking at past experience, and Gaining Ground provides a good starting point in doing so. In some cases, it may be possible to fill in basements, compacting the fill to equalize the pressure on the outside of those walls, and turn first floors into basements—essentially eliminating an occupied floor of a building.
In other cases, entire buildings may have to be elevated and new foundations built on compacted fill 15 or 20 feet higher. Streets would have to be covered and rebuilt on fill.
Very challenging will be the need for such modifications to be coordinated on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood basis. You can’t raise one building 20 feet and not do anything with the building next door.
This would be an extraordinarily complex process in terms of phasing, implementation, and environmental protection. But it’s time to take sea level rise seriously and begin looking at our options. Raising land mass may be one such option.
Source: Alex Wilson, Resilientdesign.org, A bold idea for addressing sea level rise, Mar 28, 2016
Apps
Boston underwater: How the rising sea levels will affect the city
Underwater: How the rising sea levels will affect various cities
Massachusetts Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Viewer
http://climateactiontool.org: Sea level rise Massachusetts
– and Intro: Massachusetts Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Viewer
Sea Level Rise Viewer NOAA Office for Coastal Management
Explore the spatial data used in Climate Ready Boston – This app allows you to learn more about the data layers used in the Climate Ready Boston recommendations for protecting our City from a changing climate, and helps you better understand how projections are influencing resiliency solutions. Read the introduction to this interactive tool.
Articles
How Boston’s Preparing For Rising Sea Levels By Anaridis Rodriguez, WBZ-TV
Sasaki : Sea Change Boston. Designing in the Face of Climate Change– Sasaki is a global design firm specializing in architecture, planning, urban design, landscape architecture.
Wall to protect Boston from flooding would cost up to $12 billion to build. MassLive.com
A much-anticipated new report on how best to protect the Seaport District and other Boston neighborhoods from the effects of climate change finds that the cost to build a massive, multibillion-dollar wall in Boston Harbor is not worth the benefits.
Instead, it finds that the city of Boston and other coastal cities and towns should focus on more localized projects to counteract the flooding and higher sea levels wrought by global warming, said the report… “Right now, it doesn’t make sense for the city to consider any kind of harborwide barrier system,” said the report’s lead investigator, Paul Kirshen of UMass Boston’s Sustainable Solutions Lab. “It doesn’t make sense for decades, if not ever.” The report was sponsored by the Boston Green Ribbon Commission, a coalition of business and civic leaders formed more than a decade ago to help the city address climate change
… Either barrier could cut down on coastal flooding without significantly disrupting shipping or the environment, according to the report. But “shore-based” solutions, as the researchers call them, can provide the same level of protection at a cost of just $1 billion to $2 billion, with additional benefits to boot, Kershen told reporters Tuesday. Shore-based systems could include flood walls on a much smaller scale than a harborwide barrier, changes to zoning laws, and the raising of land using berms, among other projects.
Data articles
Sea Level Rise has Accelerated
Learning Standards
2016 Massachusetts Science and Technology/Engineering Curriculum Framework
HS-ESS2-6. Use a model to describe cycling of carbon through the ocean, atmosphere, soil, and biosphere and how increases in carbon dioxide concentrations due to human activity have resulted in atmospheric and climate changes.
HS-ESS3-1. Construct an explanation based on evidence for how the availability of key natural resources and changes due to variations in climate have influenced human activity.
HS-LS2-7. Analyze direct and indirect effects of human activities on biodiversity and ecosystem health, specifically habitat fragmentation, introduction of non-native or invasive species, overharvesting, pollution, and climate change. Evaluate and refine a solution for reducing the impacts of human activities on biodiversity and ecosystem health.*
High School Technology/Engineering
HS-ETS1-1. Analyze a major global challenge to specify a design problem that can be improved. Determine necessary qualitative and quantitative criteria and constraints for
solutions, including any requirements set by society.*
HS-ETS1-2. Break a complex real-world problem into smaller, more manageable problems that each can be solved using scientific and engineering principles.*
HS-ETS1-3. Evaluate a solution to a complex real-world problem based on prioritized criteria and trade-offs that account for a range of constraints, including cost, safety, reliability, aesthetics, and maintenance, as well as social, cultural, and environmental impacts.*
Evolutionary Origin of the Turtle Shell
This intro is lightly adapted from thelogicofscience.com
Many people mistakenly believe that there are two fundamentally different types of evolution: microevolution and macroevolution. They argue that microevolution does actually occur, but only produces small changes within a species or “kind” of animal.
For example, they’re okay with the concept that all finches evolved from a common ancestor, all crows evolved from a common ancestor, all ducks evolved from a common ancestor, etc.
However, they draw the line roughly at the taxonomic level of family (e.g., ducks are in the Anatidae family), and they argue that evolution beyond that level (what they call macroevolution) is impossible and has never and can never happen. Thus, they dismiss the notion that finches, crows, and ducks all share a common ancestor.
However, this distinction is completely arbitrary and meaningless: the exact same evolutionary mechanisms that caused the evolution of finch species could (and indeed did) cause the evolution of all birds. In other words, macroevolution is simply the accumulation of microevolutionary steps, and one inherently leads to the other.
Here is a visual explanation. The image below shows a hypothetical pathway through which turtles could have evolved from their lizard-like ancestors.
Several of these images are renderings of actual fossils: B6 = Milleretta, A15 = Eunotosaurus, C22 = Odontochelys, B30 = Proganochelys, D37 = Chelydra [modern turtles]; these are just screen shots from Dr. Tyler Lyson’s excellent video.
This full progression is, of course, what creationists would consider to be macroevolution, and creationists are adamant that today’s turtle families were uniquely created and did not evolve from a lizard-like ancestor. However, because they accept microevolution, most creationists would have no problem with any particular pair of images, and they would accept that A1 could evolve into B1, B1 could evolve into C1, etc.
In other words, each pair of images shows “microevolution” (which creationists almost universally accept), but when we string all of those steps together, we get “macroevolution” (which they say is impossible).
You can probably see where I am going with this, but just to be sure, I will state it explicitly. If you are going to say that macroevolution is impossible and turtles could not have evolved from lizard-like ancestors, then which step do you think is impossible?
Please show me which step could not have occurred, and justify that claim. Additionally, please explain the obvious transitional fossils.
Remember, B6, A15, C22, B30, and D37 are actual fossils, and they perfectly match the expectations for what a transitional fossil should look like (details here).
So, if turtles and their lizard like ancestors were uniquely created kinds, then at what point in this progression do lizard-like reptiles end and turtles begin?
Image from “Evolutionary Origin of the Turtle Shell” by Tyler Lyson

Step-by-step






And here is the amazing video
Continued from “The Logic of Science”
Some people will likely be inclined to ignore my questions and harp instead on the fact that this pathway is hypothetical, but that argument completely misses the point in several ways.
First, this pathway is only partially hypothetical because B6, A15, C22, B30, and D37 are actual fossils that we have found.
Additionally, of course the pathway is partially hypothetical. We will never find every single one of these steps, and we don’t need to:
Evolution is very much like the visible light spectrum. Each color gradually fades into the next color without a clear breaking point.
In other words, there is a point along the spectrum that is clearly red, and there is a point that is clearly blue, and there is a point that is clearly violet, but there is a spectrum of change in between those points – and it is not possible to pick an exact point where the blue ends and violet begins, just as you cannot pinpoint the exact step at which the reptile becomes a turtle as we know it.
Reference
Evolutionary Origin of the Turtle Shell, By Tyler R. Lyson, Gabe S. Bever, Torsten M. Scheyer, Allison Y. Hsiang, Jacques A. Gauthier
Current Biology, Published Online: May 30, 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.05.003
Articles by cognitive scientist Daniel Willingham
Articles by cognitive scientists Daniel Willingham
Cognitive Processes
How to allocate study time
Why transfer is hard
Why students remember or forget
Why students think they understand when they don’t
Why practice is important
Why people love and remember stories
Why knowledge is important
How to teach critical thinking
Why reading comprehension strategies are less useful than most people think
What will improve a student’s memory?
What goes into mathematical thinking?
Motivation–role of praiseMotivation–role of rewards
Has technology changed how students think?
Can teachers increase students self-control?
Why does family wealth affect student outcomes?
The role of sleep in schooling and learning
Excerpt of Raising Kids Who Read
Can Reading Comprehension Be Taught?
How Do Manipulatives Help Students Learn?
Evaluation of Theories
Teacher education and the need for a mental model of the learner
Visual, auditory, kinesthetic learners
Brain-based learning
Using neuroscientific data in education theories
Multiple Intelligences
Developmentally appropriate practice
Mel Levine’s A Mind at a Time
How should we think about student differences?
21st century skills
Grit
Healthy diets
How to construct a healthy diet

Vegan sources of protein

Healthy plant-based diets – “A diet based on fruits, vegetables, tubers, whole grains, and legumes; and it excludes or minimizes meat (including chicken and fish), dairy products, and eggs, as well as highly refined foods like bleached flour, refined sugar, and oil.”
Forksoverknives.com/plant-based-primer-beginners-guide-starting-plant-based-diet
https://www.drmcdougall.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=48602
Changes to the American diet over the last century
Old American diet
* Near the start of the 20th century, Americans each ate about 120 lbs if meat per year. By 2007, we ate about 222 lbs.
* About 1913, Americans ate about 40 lbs of processed sugar per person. By 1999, it had increased to 147 lbs per person.
* About 1909, Americans ate about 294 lbs of dairy products per person. By 2006, that number was over double…605 lbs of dairy per person!!
* This information came from the companion book to Forks Over Knives.
Write about health effects due to these changes
http://veggiesforme.com/2011/09/14/shocking-rate-of-increase-of-consumption-of-meat-dairy-and-sugar/
How lose weight and stay healthy
Plant-based diet
This is not the same as vegan or vegetarian!
Give meals flavor with spices, not fats, oils, or sugar.
Think of high calorie density foods (nuts, avocado, oils) as condiments. So can you have a slice of avocado on a bean and rice burrito? Sure! But don’t sit down with guacamole and a bag of corn chips.
Calorie dilution allows people to fill their stomach with fewer calories.

The China Study
The China Study, T. Colin Campbell, 2005
The China Study examines the relationship between the consumption of animal products (including dairy) and chronic illnesses such as coronary heart disease, diabetes, breast cancer, prostate cancer, and bowel cancer. The authors conclude that people who eat a predominantly whole-food, plant-based diet—avoiding animal products as a main source of nutrition, including beef, pork, poultry, fish, eggs, cheese, and milk, and reducing their intake of processed foods and refined carbohydrates—will escape, reduce, or reverse the development of numerous diseases.
The book is loosely based on the China–Cornell–Oxford Project, a 20-year study—described by The New York Times as “the Grand Prix of epidemiology”—conducted by the Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine, Cornell University, and the University of Oxford. (Wikipedia)
Dean Ornish Diet – tba
Ornish is known for his lifestyle-driven approach to the control of coronary artery disease (CAD) and other chronic diseases. He promotes lifestyle changes including a whole foods, plant-based diet, smoking cessation, moderate exercise, stress management techniques including yoga and meditation, and psychosocial support. Ornish does not follow a strict vegetarian diet and recommends fish oil supplements; the program additionally allows for the occasional consumption of other animal products. (Wikipedia)
The Engine 2 Diet/Rip Esselstyn
– Details tba
Jeff Novick diet
The Five Pillars of Healthy Eating: “A Common Sense Approach To Nutrition”
1) Plant-Centered – Center your plate and your diet around minimally processed plant foods (fruits, vegetables, starchy vegetables, roots/tubers, intact whole grains, and legumes (beans, peas & lentils).
2) Minimally Processed – Enjoy foods as close to “as grown in nature” with minimal processing that does not detract from the nutritional value &/or add in any harmful components.
3) Calorie Dilute – Follow the principles of calorie density choosing foods that are calorie adequate, satiating and nutrient sufficient.
4) Low S-O-S – Avoid/minimize the use of added Salts/sodium, Oils/Fats and Sugars/sweeteners
5) Variety – Consume a variety of foods in each of the recommended food groups.
from The Healthy Eating Placemat A Visual Guide To Healthy Eating
Also see
Jeff Novick A Common Sense Approach To Sound Nutrition

This excerpt from an interview summarizes Jeff Novick’s view:
Consume a variety of foods in each of the recommended food groups. Now, if there were ten of us in the room, we could each implement these pillars slightly differently and still each have a healthy diet and great health results. That’s because when we look at the research evidence, there’s no one specific diet that is “best.”
Instead, there are common denominators across healthy diets that combine to make up a healthy dietary pattern, and these are reflected in my five guidelines/principles of healthy eating.
What foods do you recommend that people incorporate into their diets? The healthiest foods are minimally processed fruits, vegetables, starchy vegetables, roots/tubers, intact whole grains, and legumes. These should make up most—if not all—of our daily calories. I recommend that people start right where they are and just keep adding in more of these foods each day.
It seems today that the topic of nutrition and health has become a war with sides drawn and no discussion. I am disappointed in the conversation I see happening on social media because a lot of it is very judgmental, confrontational, and elitist.
The message out there seems to be that if the food you eat is not fresh, organic, local, shade-grown, GMO-free, and picked yourself or picked up at a local farmer’s market or purchased from some elite health food store, then all blended together in some expensive hi-tech blender, you are not doing well enough. And, if you buy any frozen or canned foods, you might as well be eating bacon and cheeseburgers.
We need to have compassion, not only for the animals and the environment, but also for our fellow humans, particularly in the way we treat each other, especially those who may not follow the exact same dietary pattern we do.
source: An interview with healthy eating expert Jeff Novick, posted on Jewishfoodherocom, Dec. 2015

Jeff Novick’s Healthy Eating Placemat
Do vegetarians need to engage in protein combining?
Protein combining is a dietary theory for protein nutrition that purports to optimize the biological value of protein intake. According to the theory, vegetarian and vegan diets provide insufficient content of essential amino acids, making protein combining necessary. The theory has been roundly discredited by major health organizations. Studies on essential amino acid contents in plant proteins has shown that vegetarian and vegans in fact do not need to complement plant proteins in each meal to reach the desired level of essential amino acids as long as their diets are varied. The terms complete and incomplete are misleading in relation to plant protein. Protein from a variety of plant foods, eaten during the course of a day, supplies enough of all essential amino acids when caloric requirements are met.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protein_combining
Do humans need meat? Is veganism safe?
Studies are clearly honing in on the idea that the typical American diet is harmful, and that plant-based diets are much healthier. Just remember that this isn’t the same as being vegan or vegetarian. Plant-based diets allow for a small amount of meat on a regular basis (red meat, fowl, seafood, etc.)
From this BBC article, Zaria Gorvett writes
Recent concern about the nutritional gaps in plant-based diets has led to a number of alarming headlines, including a warning that they can stunt brain development and cause irreversible damage to a person’s nervous system.
Back in 2016, the German Society for Nutrition went so far as to categorically state that – for children, pregnant or nursing women, and adolescents – vegan diets are not recommended, which has been backed up by a 2018 review of the research.
… there are several important brain nutrients that simply do not exist in plants or fungi. Creatine, carnosine, taurine, EPA and DHA omega-3 (the third kind can be found in plants), haem iron and vitamins B12 and D3 generally only occur naturally in foods derived from animal products, though they can be synthesised in the lab or extracted from non-animal sources such as algae, bacteria or lichen, and added to supplements.
Others are found in vegan foods, but only in meagre amounts; to get the minimum amount of vitamin B6 required each day (1.3 mg) from one of the richest plant sources, potatoes, you’d have to eat about five cups’ worth (equivalent to roughly 750g or 1.6lb).
… though the body can make some of these vital brain compounds from other ingredients in our diets, this ability isn’t usually enough to make up for these dietary cracks. For all of the nutrients listed above, vegetarians and vegans have been shown to have lower quantities in their bodies. In some cases, deficiency isn’t the exception – it’s completely normal.
For now, the impact these shortcomings are having on the lives of vegans is largely a mystery. But a trickle of recent studies have provided some clues – and they make for unsettling reading.
“I think there are some real repercussions to the fact that plant-based diets are taking off,” says Taylor Wallace, a food scientist and CEO of the nutrition consulting firm Think Healthy Group. “It’s not that plant-based is inherently bad, but I don’t think we’re educating people enough on, you know, the nutrients that are mostly derived from animal products.”
How a vegan diet could affect your intelligence, BBC, Future
Is cheese bad for us? Is dairy bad for us?
Every food group is okay in moderation.
Great News, America: Cheese Isn’t Bad for You, Gilad Edelman, Wired magazine, 2/22/2021
The best evidence for the benign impact of cheese comes from long-term cohort studies that tracked the health and eating habits of tens or hundreds of thousands of people. A 2011 paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine analyzed three cohorts that together tracked 120,877 US adults over several decades.
The authors found that foods like potatoes, processed meats, and refined grains were associated with weight gain over time, while yogurt, fruit, and nuts were associated with weight loss. Cheese was right in the middle: On average, eating more or less of it had essentially no effect on weight.
That finding has held up in more recent research. A 2018 analysis of a study of 2,512 men in Wales, for example, showed a mild inverse relationship between cheese consumption and body mass after five years, meaning eating cheese was associated with weight loss, though that effect faded at the 10-year mark.
A meta-analysis of 37 randomized clinical trials found that increased dairy consumption overall led to increased lean muscle mass and decreased body fat.
“There’s almost no evidence that cheese causes weight gain—and in fact, there’s evidence that it’s neutral at worst,” says Dariush Mozaffarian, the lead author of the 2011 paper and dean of the Tufts Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy.
Related articles
Nutrients
Organic food and farming
Meaningless words in food science
What we need to know about healthy diets
Healthy meal generator
External related articles
Low-Fat Vegan Diets By Sharon Palmer, RDN Today’s Dietitian
Lack of exercise is a major cause of chronic diseases
Learning Standards
Massachusetts Health Framework
Students will gain the knowledge and skills to select a diet that supports health and reduces the risk of illness and future chronic diseases. PreK–12 Standard 4
Through the study of Improving Nutrition students will
3.1 Identify the key nutrients in food that support healthy body systems (skeletal, circulatory) and recognize that the amount of food needed changes as the body grows
3.2 Use the USDA Food Guide Pyramid and its three major concepts of balance, variety, and moderation to plan healthy meals and snacks
3.3 Recognize hunger and satiety cues and how to make food decisions based upon these cues.
3.8 List the functions of key nutrients and describe how the United States Dietary Guidelines relate to health and the prevention of chronic disease throughout the life span.
3.9 Describe a healthy diet and adequate physical activity during the adolescent growth spurt.
3.20 Identify and analyze dietary plans, costs, and long-term outcomes of weight management programs.
3.21 Identify how social and cultural messages about food and eating influence nutrition choices.
Benchmarks for Science Literacy, American Association for the Advancement of Science
Increased knowledge about nutrition has led to the development of diets containing the variety of foods that can help people live longer and healthier lives. 8F/M7** (SFAA)
2016 Massachusetts Science and Technology/Engineering Curriculum Framework
HS-LS1-2. Develop and use a model to illustrate the key functions of animal body systems, including (a) food digestion, nutrient uptake, and transport through the body; (b) exchange of oxygen and carbon dioxide; (c) removal of wastes; and (d) regulation of
body processes.
Causes of autism
There’s a widely believed idea that the cause of autism is unknown. Yet science does indeed know the causes of many, likely most, cases of autism. Unfortunately since many people don’t know the actual causes, some promote disproven hypotheses such as
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autism is caused by bad parenting
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autism is caused by the MMR vaccines
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autism is caused by mercury-containing preservative that existed in a few vaccines.
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autism is caused by eating wheat/gluten, and milk/casein. Leaky gut syndrome hypothesis.
In reality, a great deal of progress has been made over the past 40 years about the true causes of autism. While complex, the basic ideas are now well understood:
Autism is often caused by certain genetic mutations that affect brain growth and development.
It is also sometimes caused when our immune system fights back against infections. Unvaccinated male babies are much more likely to become autistic than those who were vaccinated.
Many specific mutations have already been identified and we’re learning more every year.
Critical points
Mutations are not all-or-nothing.
Some cause a small amount of damage.
Other have more significant effects.
Autism is rarely caused by just one mutation. Instead, many people have several different mutations for genes in brain growth and development.
Here we see a partial list of gene mutations linked to brain development and autism.
Since there are many genes that could mutate, and each of these can mutate in different ways, there are a huge number of combinations possible. Each different combination of mutations is unique.
To understand how huge the number of possible combinations would be one needs to learn the mathematics of probability.
To give a simple analogy, consider a deck of playing cards.
For example, what is the number of five-card hands possible from a standard fifty-two card deck?
The math looks like this:
Wow! We have just 52 different cards. Yet there this many possibilities?
Now consider: There are more than 52 genes controlling brain development – each of those genes can have more than 52 possible combinations.
So the take away lesson is that there are lots of possible combinations, lots of possible ways that brains could develop abnormally.
Some gene mutations could be due to a pathogen or hormone during gestation.
And on top of this, there’s another layer of genetic mutation possible – epigenetic mutations.
There are chemical markers on top of genes.
These chemical markers control how often a gene is copied or expressed, and can even silence a gene.
So a gene could have no mutation itself, but the epigenetic controls on top of it (so to speak) can cause the gene product to be over-expressed, or not expressed at all.
This kind of epigenetic mutation for brain related genes also can be one of the causes of autism.
Scientific papers
Autism genetics, explained, by Nicholette Zeliadt, June 27, 2017
How do researchers know genes contribute to autism? Since the first autism twin study in 1977, several teams have compared autism rates in twins and shown that autism is highly heritable. When one identical twin has autism, there is about an 80 percent chance that the other twin has it too. The corresponding rate for fraternal twins is around 40 percent.
However, genetics clearly does not account for all autism risk. Environmental factors also contribute to the condition — although researchers disagree on the relative contributions of genes and environment. Some environmental risk factors for autism, such as exposure to a maternal immune response in the womb or complications during birth, may work with genetic factors to produce autism or intensify its features.
Is there such a thing as a [single] autism gene? Not really. There are several conditions associated with autism that stem from mutations in a single gene, including fragile X and Rett syndromes. But less than 1 percent of non-syndromic cases of autism stem from mutations in any single gene. So far, at least, there is no such thing as an ‘autism gene’ — meaning that no gene is consistently mutated in every person with autism. There also does not seem to be any gene that causes autism every time it is mutated.
Still, the list of genes implicated in autism is growing. Researchers have tallied 65 genes they consider strongly linked to autism, and more than 200 others that have weaker ties. Many of these genes are important for communication between neurons or control the expression of other genes.
How do these genes contribute to autism?
Changes, or mutations, in the DNA of these genes can lead to autism. Some mutations affect a single DNA base pair, or ‘letter.’ In fact, everyone has thousands of these genetic variants. A variant that is found in 1 percent or more of the population is considered ‘common’ and is called a single nucleotide polymorphism, or SNP.
Common variants typically have subtle effects and may work together to contribute to autism. ‘Rare’ variants, which are found in less than 1 percent of people, tend to have stronger effects. Many of the mutations linked to autism so far have been rare. It is significantly more difficult to find common variants for autism risk, although some studies are underway.
Other changes, known as copy number variations (CNVs), show up as deletions or duplications of long stretches of DNA and often include many genes.
But mutations that contribute to autism are probably not all in genes, which make up less than 2 percent of the genome. Researchers are trying to wade into the remaining 98 percent of the genome to look for irregularities associated with autism. So far, these regions are poorly understood.
… Can genetics explain why boys are more likely than girls to have autism? Perhaps. Girls with autism seem to have more mutations than do boys with the condition. And boys with autism sometimes inherit their mutations from unaffected mothers. Together, these results suggest that girls may be somehow resistant to mutations that contribute to autism and need a bigger genetic hit to have the condition.
See The genetics of autism, Nicholette Zeliadt, June 27, 2017, 6/27/2017
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Most Autism Cases Can Be Explained by Faulty Genes, New Research Confirms: We understand it better than ever.
By Mike Mcrae, Sept 27, 2017.
A fresh look at data from earlier research has reaffirmed what many researchers had thought – autism is primarily in the genes.
Other studies have shown autism spectrum disorder (ASD) tends to cluster in families and is associated with particular genes, but nailing down the risks with precision is a complex task. This new research has put a figure on the chances, claiming 83 percent of autism cases are inherited.
The study led by researchers from the Ichan School of Medicine in New York reanalysed a Swedish longitudinal study that involved over 2.6 million pairs of siblings, 37,570 pairs of twins, and just under a million half-sibling pairs.
Of these, 14,516 children had an ASD diagnosis.
Autism and its associated spectrum of conditions is a rather complex disorder, distinguished by difficulties in communicating and engaging in social interactions.
The signs usually aren’t all that clear until a child might be expected to develop advanced communication skills, around age 2 to 3, making it hard to untangle genetic and environmental causes.
In fact, as recently as just half a century ago, physicians thought it could be the result of a lack of maternal love and affection.
Studies that have focussed on finding links between family relationships have come up with a variety of figures on the genetics of ASD.
Twin studies have suggested as many as 9 out of 10 children with autism inherited the condition through their combination of genes, though other studies have also put a more conservative estimate down towards 60 percent.
One study published in 2011 conducted by researchers from Stanford University in California put the chances of genetic heritability at around 38 percent for ASD.
An analysis conducted in 2014 also calculated a lower number, nearer to just 50 percent.
Which of these numbers are more accurate?
The researchers were skeptical of how the 50 percent figure was determined, suspecting that by taking into account the precise timing of the autism diagnosis, the estimate was being distorted.
So the researchers took the same massive data-set on Swedish children and used another method that had previously proven itself in the field, identifying a model that fitted best.
Their conclusion of 83 percent is closer to the 90 percent determined by earlier twin studies than the 38 percent of the California research, and was estimated with higher precision.
“Like earlier twin studies, shared environmental factors contributed minimally to the risk of ASD,” write the researchers.
While we can be confident that genes play a key role in the development of the traits associated with ASD, we can also be sure that this won’t be the final word on the matter.
For one thing, just one in 68 children is diagnosed with the disorder. While not extraordinarily rare, it’s uncommon enough to make it hard to find a large enough sample size for precise predictions.
The condition isn’t cut and dried, either, with the spectrum covering a range of behaviours and functions. It affects just 1 in 189 girls, while 1 in 42 boys are diagnosed.
Progress is being made in determining which genes are responsible for the neurological variations that give rise to autism-like functions, but it’s slow going.
New research suggests a small fraction of the genes responsible might not be present in parents at all.
A recent study published in the American Journal of Human Genetics reported on the systematic analysis of genetic mutations among 2,300 families who had a single child affected by autism.
They found genetic changes that occur after conception – called postzygotic mosaic mutations – could be responsible for autism in around 2 percent of the individuals in their sample.
“This initial finding told us that, generally, these mosaic mutations are much more common than previously believed. We thought this might be the tip of a genetic iceberg waiting to be explored,” says researcher Brian O’Roak from Oregon Health & Science University.
We’re still a long way off mapping and understanding the role genes play in how our brains interact socially. And for all of this research, the environment can’t be ruled out completely. The more we discover, however, the clearer it is that ASD isn’t a condition we can easily prevent by simply making the right choices as a parent.
This research was published in JAMA. Source: Most autism cases can be explained
Research Letter. September 26, 2017, The Heritability of Autism Spectrum Disorder, Sven Sandin, et al. JAMA. 2017;318(12):1182-1184. doi:10.1001/jama.2017.12141
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Half of all autism cases trace to rare gene-disabling mutations.
New research suggests that, in at least half of cases, autism traces to one of roughly 200 gene-disabling mutations found in the child but neither parent.
Many of these “high-impact” mutations, the investigators found, completely disable genes crucial to early brain development. In addition, they appear to be more common among people who are severely disabled by autism versus those only mildly affected.
The DNA analysis of 1,866 families affected by autism looked at the growing list of more than 500 gene changes known to increase autism risk. It identified 239 genes with the greatest likelihood of causing autism if any one of them was disabled by a mutation.
The study’s findings also run counter to the commonly held idea that autism almost always results from a complex interplay of common and subtle gene changes and environmental influences – none of which would cause autism by itself.
This shortened “priority list” may prove particularly helpful to doctors and geneticists using genetic screens to guide diagnosis and personalized treatment, comments Mathew Pletcher, head of Autism Speaks’ genomic discovery program. Dr. Pletcher was not involved in the research.
“These findings argue strongly that genetics can provide meaningful answers for a significant portion of individuals with autism,” Dr. Pletcher explains. “From this extends the idea we can provide better care and support by deepening our understanding of the health risks that arise from each person’s specific genetic disruption.”
Most of the high-impact mutations identified in the new study occurred in the child but neither parent. Such newly arising, or de novo, mutations first occur in the mother’s egg, the father’s sperm or early in embryo development.
Some of the first research out of the Autism Speaks MSSNG project implicated de novo mutations in the higher rates of autism seen among children of older parents. With age, a woman’s eggs and a man’s sperm-producing cells tend to accumulate these mutations. And one potential source of these accumulating mutations, Dr. Pletcher notes, is lifetime exposure to environmental “insults” such as radiation and toxic chemicals (naturally occurring or otherwise).
Scientific paper: Low load for disruptive mutations in autism genes and their biased transmission. Authors: Ivan Iossifova, Dan Levya… and Michael Wiglera.
PNAS 2015 October, 112 (41) E5600-E5607.
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Networks of genes altered in autism brains, study says
By Virginia Hughes, 5/25/20100, Spectrum News
Two networks of genes are abnormally expressed in the brains of people with autism, according to a study published today in Nature… genes involved in cell connectivity tend to be expressed at lower levels in autism brains, and genes related to immune cells at higher levels.
Autism is known for its diversity in symptoms and in the genes that might cause it. “[But] there is a remarkable consistency in the molecular changes that are occurring in the brain,” notes lead investigator Daniel Geschwind, distinguished professor of neurology, psychiatry and human genetics at the University of California, Los Angeles.
The study turned up several unexpected findings. For example, the frontal lobe and temporal lobe in healthy controls show significant differences in gene expression, reflecting their distinct cell types and functions. But in the autism brains, “those differences are essentially wiped out,” Geschwind says. Many of these genes are first turned on during embryonic development, he says, suggesting that the abnormal trajectory of autism brains begins early.
“This has never been reported before — it’s definitely an original contribution and an advance,” notes John Allman, professor of neurobiology at the California Institute of Technology, who was not involved in the study.
This image shows that ” In brain tissue from individuals with autism, abnormally expressed genes (red circles) cluster into networks with shared biological functions.”
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Fathers bequeath more mutations as they age
Genome study may explain links between paternal age and conditions such as autism.
Ewen Callaway, 22 August 2012
In the 1930s, the pioneering geneticist J. B. S. Haldane noticed a peculiar inheritance pattern in families with long histories of haemophilia. The faulty mutation responsible for the blood-clotting disorder tended to arise on the X chromosomes that fathers passed to their daughters, rather than on those that mothers passed down. Haldane subsequently proposed1 that children inherit more mutations from their fathers than their mothers, although he acknowledged that “it is difficult to see how this could be proved or disproved for many years to come”.
That year has finally arrived: whole-genome sequencing of dozens of Icelandic families has at last provided the evidence that eluded Haldane. Moreover, a study published in Nature finds that the age at which a father sires children determines how many mutations those offspring inherit2. By starting families in their thirties, forties and beyond, men could be increasing the chances that their children will develop autism, schizophrenia and other diseases often linked to new mutations. “The older we are as fathers, the more likely we will pass on our mutations,” says lead author Kári Stefánsson, chief executive of deCODE Genetics in Reykjavik. “The more mutations we pass on, the more likely that one of them is going to be deleterious.”
Haldane, working years before the structure of DNA was determined, was also correct about why fathers pass on more mutations. Sperm is continually being generated by dividing precursor cells, which acquire new mutations with each division. By contrast, women are born with their lifelong complement of egg cells.
Stefánsson, whose company maintains genetic information on most Icelanders, compared the whole-genome sequences of 78 trios of a mother, father and child. The team searched for mutations in the child that were not present in either parent and that must therefore have arisen spontaneously in the egg, sperm or embryo. The paper reports the largest such study of nuclear families so far.
Fathers passed on nearly four times as many new mutations as mothers: on average, 55 versus 14. The father’s age also accounted for nearly all of the variation in the number of new mutations in a child’s genome, with the number of new mutations being passed on rising exponentially with paternal age. A 36-year-old will pass on twice as many mutations to his child as a man of 20, and a 70-year-old eight times as many, Stefánsson’s team estimates.
The researchers estimate that an Icelandic child born in 2011 will harbour 70 new mutations, compared with 60 for a child born in 1980; the average age of fatherhood rose from 28 to 33 over that time.
Most such mutations are harmless, but Stefánsson’s team identified some that studies have linked to conditions such as autism and schizophrenia. The study does not prove that older fathers are more likely than younger ones to pass on disease-associated or other deleterious genes, but that is the strong implication, Stefánsson and other geneticists say.
Previous studies have shown that a child’s risk of being diagnosed with autism increases with the father’s age. And a trio of papers3–5 published this year identified dozens of new mutations implicated in autism and found that the mutations were four times more likely to originate on the father’s side than the mother’s.
The results might help to explain the apparent rise in autism spectrum disorder: this year, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, reported that one in every 88 American children has now been diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder, a 78% increase since 2007. Better and more inclusive autism diagnoses explain some of this increase, but new mutations are probably also a factor, says Daniel Geschwind, a neurobiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. “I think we will find, in places where there are really old dads, higher prevalence of autism.”
However, Mark Daly, a geneticist at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston who studies autism, says that increasing paternal age is unlikely to account for all of the rise in autism prevalence. He notes that autism is highly heritable, but that most cases are not caused by a single new mutation — so there must be predisposing factors that are inherited from parents but are distinct from the new mutations occurring in sperm.
Historical evidence suggests that older fathers are unlikely to augur a genetic meltdown. Throughout the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, Icelandic men fathered children at much higher ages than they do today, averaging between 34 and 38. Moreover, genetic mutations are the basis for natural selection, Stefánsson points out. “You could argue what is bad for the next generation is good for the future of our species,” he says.
Nature 488, 439 (23 August 2012) doi:10.1038/488439a
https://www.nature.com/news/fathers-bequeath-more-mutations-as-they-age-1.11247
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Male biological clock possibly linked to autism, other disorders
Charlotte Schubert, Nature Medicine 14, 1170 (2008) doi:10.1038/nm1108-1170a
Over the last few years, epidemiological evidence has suggested that as men age their odds of having a child with autism, schizophrenia or bipolar disorder might increase. The findings, along with more recent genetic data have led researchers to ask whether the mutations that accumulate in sperm DNA with age might underlie this observed association.
“If this paternal age effect has something to do with mutations, then that opens up all sorts of interesting and sort of scary possibilities,” says Jonathan Sebat, a human geneticist at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory in New York State. He says it is conceivable that the trend of delaying fatherhood might contribute to an increased incidence of mutations in the population that can give rise to neuropsychiatric disorders.
In a study of more than 100,000 people, along with records about their parents’ ages, Avi Reichenberg at King’s College London and his colleagues found that 33 out of every 10,000 offspring of men 40 years or older had autism spectrum disorder – a 475% increase compared to offspring of men younger than 30, who fathered afflicted children at a rate of 6 per 10,000 (Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 63, 1026â 1032; 2006). This association is now being tested in a larger study, says Reichenberg.
A study this September showed a similar but less pronounced association of parental age with bipolar disorder (Arch. Gen. Psychiatry 65,1034â1040; 2008). Spontaneous mutations can arise in both sperm and eggs. As women age, for example, they have an increased risk of delivering a child with Down’s syndrome and other disorders caused by large-scale chromosome problems in eggs, such as trisomy. But unlike eggs, sperm arise from stem cells that continuously divide about 840 times by the time a man is 50 years old (Cytogenet. Genome Res. 111, 213â228; 2005).
The theory is that the chances of mutations increase with each round of DNA replication process that could underlie estimates that the mutation rate in males is about five times that in females (Nature 416, 624â626; 2002). Any mutation you can think of occurs more frequently in the sperm of older men,â says Sebat. Meanwhile, recent genetic surveys of people with autism and other neuropsychiatric disorders have bolstered this controversial and still tenuous hypothesis.
he DNA studies have suggested that spontaneous mutations contribute to schizophrenia and autism. This type of mutation can arise in the sperm or egg of the parents.
Sebat and his colleagues, for instance, looked at spontaneous deletions and duplications measuring about 100,000 DNA base pairs and longer length that often contain dozens of genes in the genome of people with of autism spectrum disorders (Science 316, 445â449; 2007).
Such spontaneous mutations occurred in only 1% of unaffected people, but they occurred in about 10% of subjects with sporadic forms of the disorder, meaning they had no family history. The researchers’ methods only pick up a fraction of mutations, so the effect of sporadic mutations is probably substantially larger, says Sebat.
Similar studies this year have shown that people with nonfamilial forms of schizophrenia also have a higher rate of spontaneous duplications and deletions, and Sebat says his unpublished data show a similar association in bipolar disorder. But whether the mutations that arise spontaneously in neuropsychiatric disorders come mainly from mom or dad is still unclear, as is their association with parental age. Sebat says larger studies underway should help clarify these questions.
And researchers caution that they have very little idea how the disrupted genes in eggs and sperm might potentially give rise to neuropsychiatric disease. âIt is not established, and it can put a class of individuals in a negative light, says Rita Cantor, a human geneticist at the University of California, Los Angeles. Moreover, other, even more tenuous explanations could underlie the parental age effect – such as the idea that fathers who delay parenthood somehow have genes that affect their social behavior and make their offspring more prone to neuropsychiatric disorders.
…For a man battling cancer, preserving the option to have children later in life is simple: store samples of semen. Even a single ejaculate contains millions of sperm that can later be used to fertilize an egg.
A woman facing cancer, on the other hand, has far fewer choices, which depend on her age, how much time she has before treatment must begin and the availability of a partner who can provide sperm. Oocytes, or eggs, are particularly vulnerable to chemotherapy and radiation, leaving many women infertile after being treated for cancer. The most successful option for a woman of child-bearing age is to create embryos through in vitro fertilization and freeze them. (Even if the woman’s ovaries are removed, her uterus can still carry a transplanted embryo to term.)
above text from https://dokumen.tips/documents/male-biological-clock-possibly-linked-to-autism-other-disorders.html
Also see http://themalebiologicalclock.blogspot.com/2009/01/
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Strong Association of De Novo Copy Number Mutations with Autism
Authors: Jonathan Sebat, B. Lakshmi… and Michael Wigler
Science 15 Mar 2007: DOI: 10.1126/science.1138659
We tested the hypothesis that de novo copy number variation (CNV) is associated with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). We performed comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) on the genomic DNA of patients and unaffected subjects to detect copy number variants not present in their respective parents. Candidate genomic regions were validated by higher-resolution CGH, paternity testing, cytogenetics, fluorescence in situ hybridization, and microsatellite genotyping.
Confirmed de novo CNVs were significantly associated with autism (P = 0.0005). Such CNVs were identified in 12 out of 118 (10%) of patients with sporadic autism, in 2 out of 77 (3%) of patients with an affected first-degree relative, and in 2 out of 196 (1%) of controls. Most de novo CNVs were smaller than microscopic resolution. Affected genomic regions were highly heterogeneous and included mutations of single genes. These findings establish de novo germline mutation as a more significant risk factor for ASD than previously recognized.
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Rare De Novo and Transmitted Copy-Number Variation in Autistic Spectrum Disorders
Dan Levy, Michael Ronemus, … and Michael Wigler, Neuron 70, 886–897, June 9, 2011
DOI 10.1016/j.neuron.2011.05.015
To explore the genetic contribution to autistic spectrum disorders (ASDs), we have studied genomic copy-number variation in a large cohort of families with a single affected child and at least one unaffected sibling. We confirm a major contribution from de novo deletions and duplications but also find evidence of a role for inherited ‘‘ultrarare’’ duplications. Our results show that, relative to males, females have greater resistance to autism from genetic causes, which raises the question of the fate of female carriers. By analysis of the proportion and number of recurrent loci, we set a lower bound for distinct target loci at several hundred. We find many new candidate regions, adding substantially to the list of potential gene targets, and confirm several loci previously observed. The functions of the genes in the regions of de novo variation point to a great diversity of genetic causes but also suggest functional convergence.
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Autism spectrum disorder: Genetics Home Reference
Many of the genes associated with ASD are involved in the development of the brain. The proteins produced from these genes affect multiple aspects of brain development, including production, growth, and organization of nerve cells (neurons). Some affect the number of neurons that are produced, while others are involved in the development or function of the connections between neurons (synapses) where cell-to-cell communication takes place, or of the cell projections (dendrites) that carry signals received at the synapses to the body of the neuron. Many affect development by controlling (regulating) the activity of other genes or proteins.
The specific ways that changes in these and other genes relate to the development of ASD are unknown. However, studies indicate that during brain development, some people with ASD have more neurons than normal and overgrowth in parts of the outer surface of the brain (the cortex). In addition, there are often patchy areas where the normal structure of the layers of the cortex is disturbed.
Normally the cortex has six layers, which are established during development before birth, and each layer has specialized neurons and different patterns of neural connection. The neuron and brain abnormalities occur in the frontal and temporal lobes of the cortex, which are involved in emotions, social behavior, and language. These abnormalities are thought to underlie the differences in socialization, communication, and cognitive functioning characteristic of ASD.
https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/autism-spectrum-disorder#genes
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Please vaccinate your kids” – New clues hint that young boys who get serious viral infections might be more likely to develop autism
Aria Bendix, September 28, 2021
https://www.businessinsider.com/serious-viral-infection-childhood-linked-autism-boys-2021-9
https://news.yahoo.com/clues-hint-young-boys-serious-202459662.html
A study released this month offers evidence that severe infections in childhood might make a future diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder more likely in men who are genetically predisposed to the condition.
Scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles performed the study on mice, so it’s too early to say what its implications are for humans. But other research hints at a similar association: Data collected by researchers at the University of Chicago and used in the same new study found that boys diagnosed with autism were more commonly hospitalized with infections between the ages of 1.5 and 4 than boys who didn’t have autism.
(That dataset included more than 3.6 million children with a host of different infections, though the UCLA study didn’t explore whether any particular virus was associated with autism.)
“These parallels are so striking that they’re highly unlikely to be unrelated,” Alcino Silva, director of UCLA’s Integrative Center for Learning and Memory, said of the mouse and human data. The research bolsters the idea that genetic factors don’t necessarily trigger autism on their own. Environmental factors, like a viral infection, also play a role.
The mouse study even offers a possible explanation as to why: Childhood infections may cause the body to over-express genes that code for microglia, the central nervous system’s primary immune cells. That, in turn, can affect brain development, which could be at play in some traits commonly associated with autism, such as difficulty communicating verbally or recognizing familiar faces.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666354621000995
… The researchers concluded that early viral infections, in combination with certain genetic mutations, could lead to an autism diagnosis down the line, but only in men. “The female seems to be less affected than the male,” Manuel López-Aranda, the study’s lead author, told Insider. “Maybe the root of this question is in the microglia.”
Boys’ and girls’ microglia may be in different developmental stages when they’re young, López-Aranda said, which could explain why men are more predisposed to autism.
One of the biggest lessons of the UCLA study is to not underestimate viral infections. “Something that has to be clear from this work is: please vaccinate your kids,” López-Aranda said. “Our results and the human results suggest that if you’re not vaccinating your kids for polio and they get polio, if they don’t die because of polio, they have a higher chance than other kids to develop autism spectrum disorder.”
Silva said severe childhood infections might also be linked to a higher likelihood of psychiatric disorders like schizophrenia, anxiety, or depression – a concept the researchers are studying further.
For now, though, existing data from the UCLA study suggests that rapamycin, a drug approved to treat rare lung disease, either prevented male mice from forgetting familiar faces or reversed this memory deficit after the mice had developed it. In theory, that’s a clue that children who get severe viral infections could receive treatments that help prevent them from developing autism later.
But Silva said scientists are still at the beginning stages of this research. “We have some of the pieces of the puzzle, but it’s only two or three pieces of 1,000-piece puzzle,” he said.
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Postnatal immune activation causes social deficits in a mouse model of tuberous sclerosis: Role of microglia and clinical implications
Science Advances, 17 Sep 2021, Vol 7, Issue 38
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf2073
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This website is educational. Materials within it are being used in accord with the Fair Use doctrine, as defined by United States law. §107. Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use
Notwithstanding the provisions of section 106, the fair use of a copyrighted work, including such use by reproduction in copies or phone records or by any other means specified by that section, for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching (including multiple copies for classroom use), scholarship, or research, is not an infringement of copyright. In determining whether the use made of a work in any particular case is a fair use, the factors to be considered shall include: the purpose and character of the use, including whether such use is of a commercial nature or is for nonprofit educational purposes; the nature of the copyrighted work; the amount and substantiality of the portion used in relation to the copyrighted work as a whole; and the effect of the use upon the potential market for or value of the copyrighted work. (added pub. l 94-553, Title I, 101, Oct 19, 1976, 90 Stat 2546)
See our article on issues relating to Asperger syndrome and Autism
The growing acceptance of autism in the workplace
from CBS News, Feb 11, 2018
We like to think that good work is always rewarded. But what if some people who could do good work can’t their foot in the door in the first place? That’s where recent hiring initiatives that look beyond unfair stereotypes come in, as Lee Cowan reports in our Cover Story:
Twenty-seven-year-old Christopher Pauley thought he had it all figured out when it came to looking for a job.
He had a detailed spreadsheet of each and every position he applied for — at least 600.
But despite his degree in computer science from California Polytechnic State University, he went two years with barely a nibble.
Did he get discouraged? “Oh my gosh, my morale really started to drop towards the end,” he said. “In fact, there were days where I would either hardly fill out any applications at all, or just simply not apply on anything.”
He knew he had the smarts for most jobs; he was a former Spelling Bee Champ, after all. But Pauley struggles with social and communications skills because he’s also autistic.
While precise numbers are hard to come by, by some estimates at least 80% of adults with autism are unemployed, even though their IQs are often well above average.
Sometimes their job skills can present themselves in unique ways. For Christopher, it’s video games. His ability to recognize patterns and his acute attention to detail — both hallmarks of autism — make his playing the video game Rock Band look pretty easy. And they are the same skills he was hoping would impress prospective employers in the computer programming world. But he always had to get past that interview, which was a challenge at best.
Cowan asked, “Was there, in any of those interviews, a time where you just wanted to tell somebody, ‘Look, I know my social skills maybe aren’t quite what you expect, but I know I can do this job, and I know I can do a really good job if you give me a chance’?”
“Yes.”
“But you never said that to anybody?”
“Most of the time, no,” he replied.
“Because why?”
“I just wasn’t comfortable. It makes me come across as desperate.”
At Microsoft, however, there was no need to hide his autism; they were looking for it.
“It’s a talent pool that really hasn’t been tapped,” said Jenny Lay-Flurrie, the chief accessibility officer at tech giant Microsoft outside Seattle. “There really is, and was, a lot of data on the table that said to us that we were missing out. We were missing out on an opportunity to bring talent in with autism.”
Cowan said, “So in a way, it sounds like this was almost a business imperative.”
“Heck, yeah!” she laughed. “People with disabilities are a strength and a force of nature in this company, myself included.”
Lay-Flurrie, who is profoundly deaf, communicates by reading lips and working with an interpreter. She helped create a hiring program for Microsoft back in 2015 designed to better identify candidates with autistic talents.
Instead of the traditional job interview focusing so heavily on social skills, the company has replaced it with a vetting process that lasts for weeks, and team building exercises like one called the Marshmallow Challenge.
“Being able to watch a candidate in that environment as opposed to sitting across the table interviewing them makes all the difference in the world,” said Cowan.
“Every difference,” said Lay-Flurrie. “Every day, in any company, in any role, you’re going to be asked to work with someone else to figure out a problem or a challenge, or a project.”
“And yet in that scenario, they’re not as self-conscious that they’re being observed for a job — they’re just doing a task.”
“It’s marshmallows!”
After Christopher Pauley went through a similar, unconventional interview process back in 2016, Microsoft quickly hired him as a software engineer. His manager Brent Truell says he was immediately impressed by Christopher’s “out of the box” thinking.
“When we are faced with really complicated problems, the solutions to those aren’t always simple,” said Truell. “And Christopher always kind of brings new insights. And having that creative mind, he always brings something new to the team, which is really exciting.”
“Which is exactly why you hired him, right?
“Right.”
It’s an idea that’s catching on.
Last April, 50 big-name companies — including JP Morgan, Ford and Ernst & Young — came together for a summit on how to bring more autistic adults into the workforce.
It was hosted at the Silicon Valley campus of German software maker SAP, which was one of the first large companies to reach out to the autistic community.
It started its Autism at Work Program almost five years ago, and since then it’s hired 128 people on the spectrum, with the goal of hiring more than 600.
“I have been in this industry for close to 30 years, and I can tell you it’s probably the single most rewarding program that I have been involved with,” said Jose Velasco, who heads the program.
The biggest surprise for him, he says, has been the variety of candidates applying. “Very quickly we started getting resumes from people that had degrees in history, and literature in graphic design, attorneys … the whole gamut of jobs,” Velasco said.
“So really, you went into this thinking that people with autism would be good at certain jobs, and what you ended up discovering is they’re good at all jobs?” asked Cowan.
“They are good at just about every role.”
And they’re expected to perform in those roles, just like anyone else.
Mike Seborowski, for example, was hired three years ago and works in cybersecurity in SAP’s office outside of Philadelphia. When Cowan was visiting, Jose was helping Mike get ready for a long stint at the company world headquarters in Germany. “If you would had told me six years ago that we would have an employee who was openly autistic in the company, going on a business trip to Germany for a month, I would have not believed you,” said Velasco.
Almost everyone has been a surprise, he says. He points to 26-year-old Gloria Mendoza.
She told Cowan, “You should see some of the videos I had when I was a child. I was not very socially skilled with the other kids. Not showing interest with other people, displaying some of the challenging behaviors that a child on the autism spectrum would have.”
Her parents, Rosaura and Enrique Mendoza, helped get Gloria years of speech and occupational therapies, as well as access to top doctors. “When she was very young, I used to worry so much because I never thought she will overcome all what she has done,” said Rosaura. “So, it was like a very dark cloud.”
Gloria made huge strides in her childhood, but her parents were still concerned about how autism might affect her future.
“We worry about her adult life — well, first of all, could she make it through high school?” said Enrique. “Then, once she does that, you know, can she make it through college? Can she be independent?”
She made it through both high school and college; in fact, she got two degrees from Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania — one in music (she has a beautiful singing voice), and another in computer science. And yet, a year after graduating — and hundreds of resumes later — she still couldn’t find a job … until she applied to SAP.
“Probably the best part about working here is that I can use the skills which I have studied whilst being among people that understand who I am and how I’m different from everybody else,” she said.
SAP put Mendoza through five weeks of training, which included working on her social skills.
She’s now in something called Digital Business Services, where she deals directly with customers.
Cowan asked, “What’s the one dream you really want to come true?”
“Probably that I can be really up there in my department, earning a lot of money, and still keeping the friends that I have,” she replied.
Her new friends are mostly co-workers in the autism program, and they try to get together regularly. Cowan watched as Mendoza and her friends participated in Game Night.
“And that, CBS, is how you play Smash Brothers!” said Gloria.
She told Cowan, “I never really had that many friends when I was younger, and having this wide variety of friends that understands me really makes all the difference for me.”
How so? “‘Cause I can express myself in ways that people won’t look at me weird. And it turns out that a lot of people have common interests as I do.”
SAP boasts a retention rate of about 90% for their autistic employees. Part of that may be due to the fact they’re not just set adrift in the workplace all alone. Each participant in the program is assigned a mentor from within the company — like an on-site guardian angel.
Gabby Robertson-Cawley, who has a cousin on the spectrum, volunteered to work with Gloria. “I think it’s just the rewards of getting to be friends with these colleagues who have autism — it’s not something you get in your typical corporate day-to-day experience,” Robertson-Cawley said.
Microsoft also has mentors. Melanie Carmosino, who works with Christopher Pauley, has a personal connection as well; she has a son who’s autistic.
Cowan asked, “What have you taken away from this whole experience, personally?”
“Hope,” Carmosino replied. “I think that this program gives hope to the autism community. It gives hope to parents like me, and it gives hope to people like my son that a company can, and will, look past their differences and see their gifts and let them contribute to society just like everybody else.”
Christopher Pauley is now independent, living on his own in a high-rise apartment, something he’s always wanted.
Cowan said, “I don’t want to ask how much you’re making, but you’re doing pretty good, it sounds like, yeah?”
“Yes,” he said.
“Could you ever imagine you’d be making this much money?”
“No, I never did! Honestly I would have been perfectly happy with, like, half the money I’m making now.”
He bought a car and drives himself to work — and for the first time, he says, looks forward to arriving at a place where he’s accepted for who he is.
He knows there are still challenges ahead, but given a chance to prove his worth, says Christopher, has given him an optimism he never had.
Cowan asked, “If other kids, or young adults, or adults with autism are watching this, what’s your message to them?”
“Don’t give up, and make sure to always aim high,” he replied. “Don’t aim in the middle You know, shoot for the stars every time, ’cause you never know what might happen.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-growing-acceptance-of-autism-in-the-workplace/
See our article on issues relating to Asperger syndrome and Autism
The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb
In his book The Black Swan, Nassim Taleb develops two ideas, Mediocristan and Extremistan, to help explain his Black Swan Theory.
Mediocristan is where normal things happen, things that are expected, whose probabilities of occurring are easy to compute, and whose impact is not terribly huge. The bell curve and the normal distribution are emblems of Mediocristan. Low-impact changes have the highest probabilities of occurring, and huge, wide-impact changes have a very small probability of occurring.
Bell curve describing Mediocristan
Examples: Nature is full of things that follow a normal distribution. Height of humans is a simple example. If you take a few hundred people, and take their average height, there is no human whose height would significantly disrupt the average if added to the sample. Height/weight of people, or life expectancy, are from Mediocristan.
Properties: In Mediocristan, nothing is scalable, everything is constrained by boundary conditions, time, the limits of biological variation, the limits of hourly compensation, etc. Because of such constraints and the limits of our knowledge, random variation of attributes exists in Mediocristan, and can be usefully described by Gaussian probability models. In such “orderly” randomness models, probability distributions are such that no single instantiation of the value of an attribute can greatly affect the sum of all values in the distribution. Even the most extreme attribute values do not materially affect the mean value of a distribution, because the more extreme any value is, the more improbable it is that the extreme value will actually occur in nature.
Exstremistan is a different beast. In Extremistan, nothing can be predicted accurately and events that seemed unlikely or impossible occur frequently and have a huge impact.
Examples: In Extremistan, a single new observation can completely disrupt the aggregate. Imagine a room full of 30 random people. If you asked everyone their salary and calculated the average, the odds are the average would seem pretty reasonable. However, if you added Bill Gates to the room and then calculated the average salary, your average would jump up by a huge margin. One observation had a disproportionate effect on the average. This is Exstremistan. Things like book sales, whether a movie becomes a hit, or a viral video on the internet all have similar characteristics, and therefore reside in Extremistan.
Properties: A winner takes all competitions. As in: a small number of individuals or companies win everything. More inequality and less social justice are inevitable. Actions by individuals and small groups generate increasingly extreme results. As in: “eventually, one man might be able to declare war on the world and win.” Systemic events, both negative and positive, will occur at a high frequency, faster and with more extreme outcomes than ever before.
[Taleb’s central critique of bell curves is that they are often applied to areas that are subject to the dynamics of Extremistan, even though it only accurately describes Mediocristan.]
Source
https://assaadmouawad.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/mediocristan-vs-extremistan/
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the bestselling book, The Black Swan, divides the world into 2 countries: Mediocristan and Extremistan. Looks like these two countries have completely different laws governing them. What are these laws? And how are they different? Let’s look at these questions in this article.
Mediocristan: Let’s start with Nassim’s favorite thought experiment. Assume that you round up a thousand people randomly selected from the general population and have them stand next to each other in one stadium. Imagine the heaviest person you can think of and add him to the sample. Assuming he weighs three times the average, between 400 and 500 pounds, he will represent a very small fraction of the total weight of the entire population (in this case about half a percent). In Mediocristan, when your sample is large, no single instance will significantly change the aggregate or the total. So who all belong to Mediocristan? Things like height, weight, income of a baker or a prostitute, car accidents, mortality rates, IQ etc.
Strange country of Extremistan: Now, let’s turn to the same people whom we lined up in a stadium and add up their net worth. Add to them net worth of Bill Gates which according to wikipedia is $58 billion. Now ask the same question: How much of the total wealth would he represent? 99.9 percent? Indeed, all others would represent no more than a rounding error for this net worth. For someone’s weight to represent such a share, he would need to weigh fifty million pounds! Same thing can be observed about book sales of randomly selected authors and adding J. K. Rowling to the list . In Extremistan, inequalities are such that one single observation can disproportionately impact aggregate, or the total. Nassim calls such events/things black swans. Matters that belong to Extremistan are: wealth, book sales per author, name recognition as a “celebrity”, speakers of a language, damage caused by earthquake, deaths in war, sizes of companies, financial markets etc.
How does this help? Nassim observes that the law of averages or the bell-curve statistics works well in Mediocristan. When friends from Mars will visit earth, they can check a small sample of people and learn a lot about people from Mediocristan. However, if you try to apply bell-curve to Extremistan it can get you in trouble. Let’s say you want to cross a river during your wildlife trek and you ask the local villager, “How deep is the river?” Villager says, “On an average 4 feet”. Now, in Extremistan, you don’t know whether it is: 4 feet +/- 1 foot or 4 feet and in one or two places 50 feet deep. Thanks to Satyam scam and the money I lost in a single day, I didn’t take time to understand what a black swan means. Next time you apply bell curve statistics to your decision (such as stock purchase), ask whether you are applying the right law in the right land.
Source
http://www.catalign.in/2009/01/black-swan-and-laws-of-mediocristan-vs.html
In his remarkable book, “The Black Swan”, Taleb describes at length the characteristics of environments that can be subject to black swans (unforeseeable, high-impact events).
When we make a forecast, we usually explicitly or implicitly base it on an assumption of continuity in a statistical series. For example, a company building its sales forecast for next year considers past sales, estimates a trend based on these sales, makes some adjustments based on current circumstances and then generates a sales forecast. The hypothesis (or rather assumption, as it is rarely explicit) in this process is that each additional year is not fundamentally different from the previous years. In other words, the distribution of possible values for next year’s sales is Gaussian (or “normal”): the probability that sales are the same is very high; the probability of an extreme variation (doubling or dropping to zero) is very low. In fact, the higher the envisaged variation, the lower the probability that such variation will occur. As a result, it is reasonable to discard extreme values in the forecasts: no marketing director is working on an assumption of sales dropping to zero.
Now, the assumption that a Gaussian-shaped curve’s fit with a potential distribution of outcomes will be the best fit is just that: an assumption. It is based simply on observation of the past. Never before have our sales dropped by 20%, 50% let alone 100%. 10, 20 or 30 years of data can confirm this (observation of the past on a large number of data). But this is only an observation of the past, not a law of physics.
Now, if we reason theoretically, not historically, on sales trends, we must recognize that there are many situations in which sales can vary widely. A sudden boycott of our products, for example (Danish dairy products in the Middle East after the Muhammad cartoons), a tidal wave in Japan, which deprives us of an essential supplier, a technological breakthrough that makes our products obsolete (NCR in 1971), the collapse of the Euro, etc. Suddenly deprived of oxygen, our sales are collapsing.
This is the black swan. The reason is simple: sales, like many statistical series, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. The probability of a large variation may be relatively low, but the reality is that in fact it cannot be calculated, because the distribution is unknown and cannot be estimated (this is what economist Frank Knight calls true uncertainty). We can thus be in a year in which the extreme value radically changes the historical distribution. We are in the domain of “fat tails”, ie unlike normally distributed series, high values can have a high probability of occurring. …
source https://silberzahnjones.com/2011/11/10/welcome-to-extremistan/
A black swan is an unpredictable, rare, but nevertheless high-impact event. The concept is easily demonstrated and well known but naming these events as “black swans” was popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name, which was described in The Sunday Times as one of the 12 most influential books since the Second World War.
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Black_swan
New research Psychopaths Don’t Care If They Hurt You
Psychopaths Don’t Care If They Hurt You. This Is Why. New research shows why the psychopathic are so likely to harm others.
Susan Krauss Whitbourne Ph.D. Jun 03, 2017
A key feature of psychopathy is insensitivity to causing harm in others. Researchers have long attempted to understand why people high in psychopathy have this emotional blind spot. A recent investigation by University of Padova (Italy) psychologist Carolina Pletti and colleagues (2017) tested a new model to provide insight into the reasons why those high in psychopathy fail to care about the suffering of their fellow humans.
According to Pletti and her team, it is well-established that people with high levels of psychopathy are less able to recognize distress cues, including facial and vocal expressions of fear and sadness by people in need of immediate help. The potential relationship between emotions and morality is, as Pletti et al. note, addressed in the Integrated Emotion System Model (IES). Most of us, according to the IES, learn early in life to prefer to avoid making other people sad or afraid. Those who are psychopathic, though, do not, and therefore are less likely to base moral decisions on their potential to cause suffering to others.
The reasoning behind the IES model involves simple reinforcement. We’ve learned over our lives that it’s bad to cause pain and suffering in others. Consider what happens when an ordinary toddler pushes a playmate, causing the playmate to burst into tears. Toddler #1 will feel sad at having hurt Toddler #2, and may even start crying, too.
Such encounters teach children to avoid causing negative emotions in other people. Individuals with psychopathy, though, don’t make this connection and go on to become adults who aren’t deterred from harming other people.
Neuroscientists trace this lack of empathy in part to a deficit in the amygdala, a part of the subcortex which processes emotional stimuli. The other deficit occurs in a part of the cerebral cortex involved in decision-making that would utilize this emotional information.
A classic dilemma used in studies of moral decision-making is the so-called “trolley” problem, in which individuals are given a scenario involving a runaway train that threatens to kill five people. In this hypothetical case, you’re told that if you send the train down another track, one person will die but you’ll save the original five in the train’s way.
Another variation of this dilemma is a bit more extreme, asking individuals whether they would push a man off an overpass in order to stop that runaway train. In this scenario, the man you push off will die, but he’ll save the five because his body on the track will stop the train.
Most people will find the choice less agonizing in the original, two-track version of the problem than in the overpass version, even though the actual problem is fundamentally the same in both scenarios. It seems worse, somehow, to actively cause the death of the man on the overpass, even though it would save the life of the five down below.
According to the IES model, the arousal of negative emotions associated with the overpass version of the problem leads most people to make the irrational decision of not saving him, but sacrificing the five. People high in psychopathy experience less of an emotional dilemma, and therefore make the more rational decision of sacrificing one for five regardless of what’s involved in doing so.
Fortunately, it’s not too often that we’re faced with such extreme choices. Pletti and her colleagues believe the trolley problem and its related footbridge variant are too extreme compared to the decisions most of us must make in the course of our everyday lives. Instead, we face situations involving other moral transgressions, such as lying.
The research team believed that they could gain greater insight into the role of emotions in moral decision-making in people high in psychopathy versus those who are not by comparing reactions to these lower-stakes moral dilemmas involving deception. One set of these everyday moral dilemmas involved causing harm to others through deception; the other set still involved lying, but were considered relatively harmless in their outcome.
Starting with a sample of 281 undergraduates, the University of Padova researchers first identified the highest and lowest in psychopathy using a standard measure that identifies those with the least emotional responsiveness to causing harm in others. The sacrificial dilemmas asked participants to imagine that they were firefighters or construction workers who had to decide whether to allow one person to die in order to save five others at risk. The everyday scenarios involving harm asked participants, for example, whether they would engage in deceptive behavior that would cost someone else money. A harmless deception-type of scenario asked them if they would fake illness to get out of going to a social event to which they’d already accepted an invitation.
As other researchers have noted, the high-psychopathic individuals were less distressed in the life-or-death sacrificial situations compared to low-psychopathic peers. The highly psychopathic also were equally likely to lie in the harmful versus harmless everyday situations, and were less emotionally distressed at the prospect of causing harm through their lies.
Interestingly, the highly psychopathic seemed able to judge whether it was morally right or wrong to deceive others, but this judgment didn’t deter them from making the harmful choice. As the authors concluded, “Psychopathic individuals are less inclined to refrain from pursuing a personal advantage involving harm to others because of their emotional hypoactivity” (p. 364).
To sum up, people high in psychopathy are able to distinguish between right and wrong, but don’t let this distinction affect their decision-making. They also will pursue choices that benefit them, even if they know they’re morally wrong, because they don’t have the same negative emotions associated with those choices that non-psychopathic individuals do. We can’t say that people high in psychopathy are unable to make moral choices, then, but it does appear justified to say that they will feel less anguish when they have to do so. The rest of us don’t want to cause harm to others and feel stressed when forced to do so, but those high in psychopathy seem to be able to make the “utilitarian,” logic-based choice without feeling particularly distraught.
If you’re in a relationship with someone you believe is high in psychopathy, this study shows the dangers you may run into if that individual would need to make a sacrifice on your behalf. All other things being equal, you’re far better off being in relationships with people who both know, and care about, what’s best for you.
References
Pletti, C., Lotto, L., Buodo, G., & Sarlo, M. (2017). It’s immoral, but I’d do it! Psychopathy traits affect decision‐making in sacrificial dilemmas and in everyday moral situations. British Journal of Psychology, 108(2), 351-368. doi:10.1111/bjop.12205
source https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/fulfillment-any-age/201706/psychopaths-dont-care-if-they-hurt-you-is-why
____________________________________________
This website is educational. Materials within it are being used in accord with the Fair Use doctrine, as defined by United States law.
§107. Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use. Notwithstanding the provisions of section 106, the fair use of a copyrighted work, including such use by reproduction in copies or phone records or by any other means specified by that section, for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching (including multiple copies for classroom use), scholarship, or research, is not an infringement of copyright. In determining whether the use made of a work in any particular case is a fair use, the factors to be considered shall include: the purpose and character of the use, including whether such use is of a commercial nature or is for nonprofit educational purposes; the nature of the copyrighted work; the amount and substantiality of the portion used in relation to the copyrighted work as a whole; and the effect of the use upon the potential market for or value of the copyrighted work. (added pub. l 94-553, Title I, 101, Oct 19, 1976, 90 Stat 2546)







